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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E. Charters who wrote (87041)	9/28/2007 4:09:51 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

My points of the last post were: 1. Gold launched simultaneously with the CRB index (July 1972) 2. Gold peaked simultaneously with the CRB (July 1973) 3. Fed Funds didn't rise in earnest until after the CRB soared (the bulk of the rate hikes started in January 1973) 4. Stocks didn't decline in earnest until after the Fed Funds soared. As late as October 1973, the Dow was within reach of all-time highs sharelynx.com 5. The recent activity in the CRB is not even close to what happened in 1973. (nearly doubled in 12 months) So, if gold is to soar from these levels, it will likely be part of a moonshot in the CRB in general. Absent a moonshot in the CRB, gold may have already seen most of its move. And inflation won't matter a jot to stocks unless and until the Fed raises rates. For those of us thinking inflation might be bad for stocks, it's evidently only higher interest rates that are bad for stocks. Inflation in CRB was completely done well before the major bear market. The market didn't even decline much as the Fed hiked rates. It wasn't until months after Fed Funds hit 10% that stocks finally tanked! Wow, was that eye-opening for me. Lots of conventional wisdom that's just plain wrong when things are scrutinized with a little more detail. BC