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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (87045)	9/28/2007 5:18:31 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 110194

<I remember catching the bottom of the correction almost perfectly, and playing an A-B-C 62% fib retracement to reload for another leg down, thinking I was in terrific shape. They then pushed right on through to new highs on a big move and bear trapped me. > Boy, does that ever sound familiar. I sure hope this time is the real deal, but we've already got new 52-week highs in many of the indices away from the bank sector. I just keep (trying) to focus on sector selection. Look at the incredible performance discrepancies between these: stockcharts.com\|d stockcharts.com\|D Some rocking to new highs, some flatlining. Nobody needs to time the general market. Just keep your sector exposures tuned and you'll beat 98% of money managers over the long haul. BC

To: russwinter who wrote (87045)	9/28/2007 5:36:30 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

CRB, stocks, Fed Funds. Really an eye-opener. Pay particular attention to the stock rally in October 1973: s189.photobucket.com Fed Funds over 10%, CRB had doubled, inflation was running rampant, but stocks still bounced to within 10% of all time highs! BC

To: russwinter who wrote (87045)	9/28/2007 7:46:47 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Same here on April/May 2006 and I got mostly out on the parabolic move, and then had a series of losses shorting the S&P starting in June - the bear trap boogie that caught you too. That led to a bunch of research of what I was missing and is when I came up with TIOs and a few other items. The only TIO ops that haven't resulted in stock market up moves since then have been the ones since June 2007... and who knows how much further down the markets would have gone without them. I basically view TIOs as a proxy for the PWG, aka PPT. If the dollar drops 10%, the markets will probably go up some percentage of that, even with the recession. But I'm still bearish and won't trade anything but short term on them... surreal is a great word for it... it's panglossian too. Gold is different - I've been holding leveraged long since late August with an expectation of a peak sometime in December around the next FOMC meeting. Same with miners but the miners position is light when compared with the futures longs. For what its worth, the next Armstrong turn is in March. We also have a major Bradley turn coming up on Oct. 17th.

To: russwinter who wrote (87045)	9/29/2007 9:53:35 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 110194

Explosion--possibly temporary--in MZM and M2. Haven't looked for M3. research.stlouisfed.org

To: russwinter who wrote (87045)	10/9/2007 9:06:58 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Newmont to Acquire Miramar Mining for C$6.25 Cash Per Share; Miramar Board to Unanimously Recommend Offer biz.yahoo.com Thanks, Russ! After you pointed out this fine prospect, I bought my first shares 1/3/05 for $1.07.

To: russwinter who wrote (87045)	10/9/2007 12:08:37 PM
From: loantech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ not sure if you caught it but the front page of today's Oregonian is about the CONDO GLUT in Portland. <<<Shadow falls on condo market Once, Portland's demand appeared insatiable. Now, shelved projects and stalled construction dot the city Tuesday, October 09, 2007RYAN FRANK and JEFF MANNING The Oregonian Staff In the hot real estate summer of 2005, the futuristic John Ross tower generated a buzz never seen before in Portland. Within a week, 222 potential buyers plunked down $5,000 or more to reserve their condos in the 31-story tower on the Willamette River. The talk around town was that developers couldn't build new big-city condos fast enough to keep up with downsizing baby boomers and newcomers. But two years later, the condo boom is over. Today, the John Ross has seen so many canceled purchases that developers actually have fewer buyers -- 192 -- than they did two years ago. The John Ross got caught in the first slowdown after a historic run-up in condo construction that has reshaped Portland's skyline. For the first time, Portland's condo pioneers are suffering through an inevitable downturn. The city has a condo glut, and thousands more are rising out of the ground. In the past six years, developers built 4,042 downtown condos, more than twice the figure from the previous 30 years. Today, developers have nearly 2,114 condos under construction. No one can predict when sales will pick up again. Two towers already switched from condos to apartments. Other projects were shelved, and construction has stalled on smaller projects from Beaverton to Northeast Portland. Bankers and developers say prices won't fall so far that condo buyers will lose money. But investors expect lower profits, owners will struggle to sell, and speculators will find it harder to turn a quick profit. At the John Ross and elsewhere, developers had a harder time holding onto buyers who reserved units during the craze. Developers of The Civic, for example, had deals to sell all but eight condos. But cancellations pushed that figure to 37, a higher rate than normal. Nelda Newton, a senior vice president at Wells Fargo, is generally positive on condos long term but acknowledges that current condo sales can barely keep pace with cancellations. oregonlive.com