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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (90936)	9/30/2007 5:02:51 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

how do you feel about single payer, do you think its superior to private pools or no difference?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (90936)	9/30/2007 6:40:53 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 306849

1970s redux: Don't know if anybody's been following my comparisons of 2007 to the 1973 inflationary episode. This one is probably most interesting: Message 23923413 Message 23923441 CRB launched in July 1972. Fed started tightening in earnest in January 1973. Stocks peaked January 1973 as the tightening campaign really started to bite, but there was a rally in October 1973 that put stocks a hairs' breadth off the highs. Inflation raged a full twelve months before the serious bear began, and Fed Funds had to exceed 10% for four months before the market finally caved hard. That would be a darned long time - 120 days - to be sitting there asking yourself when the market was going to smell the coffee! Looking at individual sectors and stocks, though, one finds an even more frightening picture (if you're short now and expecting a mark-to-reality any time soon). Message 23923558 In many cases, individual stocks hit new all-time highs even as late as the October 1973 bounce, a year after the CRB launched into a moonshot, a year after Fed Funds had soared from 4% to 10%, and four months after the Fed Funds had hit 10%. These can be hard to see, but some examples of Dow stocks with Yahoo data to 1970: finance.yahoo.com Month/year of pre-1974 bear highs: All of these peaked well into 1973 - or later - by my eye: AA 1/74 CAT 10/73 DD 10/73 XOM 6/73 HPQ 1/74 IBM 6/73 KO 1/74 MCD 3/73 MMM 10/73 Only these topped out earlier: BA 1/68 DIS 1/73 GE 1/73 GM 6/71 PG&UTX 1/73 MO 3/73 MRK 3/73 I just got a new appreciation for the patience required to be short, even going into the mother of modern recessions. The silver lining? Transports did actually start collapsing in April 1972, and never really looked back. I reiterate: short stocks with dollar-based revenues and non-dollar expenses. Transports are a prime example. They lose whether the economy is strong (by inflation in expenses) or weak (collapse of revenues). Also looking for US retailers and restaurants. Please help me find more sectors and individual stock candidates! BC