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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (36072)	10/1/2007 1:28:22 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

Here is today's input from Credit Suisse on the SIA report <<August Month SIA Analysis ¦ August 2007 SIA Data Above Seasonal. SIA data (a lagging indicator) released over the weekend showed August industry revenue up 6.2% m/m (on a single month basis), 2.6 points above the seasonal average of up 3.6% m/m. August revenue marks the third consecutive month of above seasonal results. The revenue increase of 6.2% m/m was a function of higher units (up 4.6% m/m and better than normal seasonal of down 2.3% m/m) and better ASPs (up 1.4% m/m but worse than normal seasonal of up 6.1% m/m). ¦ 3Q Tracking Above Normal Seasonal. Notwithstanding continued concerns about the end-demand environment, 3Q company guidance, positive preannouncements thus far (INTC, ISIL, MPWR, QCOM, DIOD, XLNX), together with data points from the semiconductor supply chain post 2Q earnings, suggests that 3Q results will be better than normal seasonal. SIA data for the month of August also reinforces this notion – assuming that semiconductor revenue for the month of September is in-line with the normal seasonal trend (+20.3% m/m) semiconductor revenue growth for 3Q will be +13.1% q/q, versus normal seasonal (1985-2006) of +4.4% q/q. We think this trend of better than seasonal revenue growth is likely to continue into 4Q as well, where normal seasonality suggests growth of +3.9% q/q. Lastly, for our coverage universe we note that consensus estimates for 3Q are for revenue growth of +7.9% q/q, versus normal seasonal of +5.5% q/q. ¦ Focus Names. In an environment underscored by concerns about end-demand, we continue to recommend that investors focus on high-quality names with product cycles, margin expansion opportunities and near-to-intermediate term catalysts – in this context we highlight INTC, TXN and MXIM as our top picks.>>

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (36072)	10/1/2007 8:03:45 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95572

Here is the updated table for worldwide semiconductor sales to go along with the SIA report of this morning. The numbers are actuals for each month, not 3 month averages. - ACTUAL MONTHLY SALES(1,000s) - PCT - 2006 2007 DIFF CHG Jan 17417246 19290047 1872801 10.8 Feb 18591290 18031934 -559356 -3.0 Mar 23095400 23761569 666169 2.9 Apr 17111108 18376587 1265479 7.4 May 19226875 18795870 -431005 -2.2 Jun 23004417 22737497 -266920 -1.2 July 18215745 20285639 2069894 11.4 Aug 20321049 21548462 1227413 6.0 Sep 25498195 Oct 20089310 Nov 22048956 Dec 23096602 TOTAL 247716193 Thru Aug 156983130 162827605 5844475 3.7