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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (91353)	10/3/2007 8:00:40 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206133

Dennis, thanks very kindly for sharing that data and analysis, I was not aware of that. Maybe I need to reconsider my position. I wonder whether you (or anyone else) might be able to help reconcile the data you have provided with the following: 1) A fairly reputable (as far as I can tell) private forecaster, WSI, says that "[t]ypically, in the eastern US, La Nina means a warm October and a cold December, with the transition occurring in November. While we feel that December will indeed be cold in the East, the current ocean temperature patterns in the northern Pacific suggest that the early fall warmth may not be as certain as the La Nina signal suggests." See the full PR at wsi.com . Its my understanding the gas-weighted demand is pretty high in the East, due to the high populations here. 2) Why did the winter of '99-'00 have the 2 coldest months on record, with a La Nina present? Is that just the exception that proves the rule? 3) There have been several quotes of analysts and gas traders equating a La Nina with a cold winter. See, e.g., the below excerpts from a piece on Bloomberg dated 10/1: ``It's Oct. 1 and people are starting to think about winter,'' said Brad Florer, a trader with Kottke Associates Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. ``I've started to hear rumblings about La Nina and expectations of a cold winter.'' "Natural gas prices may be pushed higher this quarter by low temperatures brought on by a La Nina weather pattern, the first in seven years, according to George Hopley, an analyst at Barclays Capital in New York." Given the data you have provided, why do you suppose that so many folks are getting this point wrong? Also, just to clarify where I stand, I am "somewhat bullish", with the emphasis on the first word in quotes. I believe we are looking at another year similar to the last, where the 12-month strip will hardly ever deviates more than 10% from its current quote of $8. As illustrated by this chart of the monthly 12-month natty strip price, you would need to go back to the last millennium to find a year similar to the one that we have just completed. See futuresource.quote.com This type of environment is a very fruitful one to invest in energy stocks IMO. For the companies that know what they are doing, $8 gas is a price at which they can make some serious coin. Yet other than during the inevitable handful of price spikes that will occur during the year, the commodity price players should continue to remain on the sidelines. This is just as well, as far as I'm concerned. I will not have to bid against them when I am buying and they will not compel me to take STCG's by running the stock prices too high too soon.