Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2873)	10/1/2007 4:14:05 PM
From: JSB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6370

Damn Bill, it's not like you've been wrong for months or years, it's just a week or so. Up or down from here?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2873)	10/1/2007 4:39:19 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 6370

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, goes the old saw. I don't think you are that far under but this is a very irrational market that could go either way in a heartbeat. Very weird.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2873)	10/1/2007 6:20:29 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 6370

Well, Mr. Bill, this requires a response: First; we have here so many contradicting calls, or ideas from our high paid professionals, the analysts as well as that what the unwashed masses make out of these calls. (Many of those completely turning into sheeple). Throw some reporters and Jim "Booyaah" Cramer in between and we have a mess which utterly lacks any adequate methodology or replicability (if such a thing exists; some claim, it does ). Reading your potentially ill timed macro bet made us rehearse some of our brightest and also dumbest ideas. ........................................... In October 1998 (a situation not very different to these days) 3 out of 4 market pros advised us to avoid ALL mortgage and credit card lenders and to short them. All of them survived, with the exception of about 8 smaller companies (Amresco, IMCH, Aames the predecessor of AHM, Crimii Mae, and First Plus amongst them). Brokers urged us to short PVN, COF and most importantly Shearson Lehman to zero! Remember we were at a bottom in 1998 and not near 5% of the top, and LTCM and related federal repair work was well underway. Ill timed again. PVN did, in fact practically blow up, but it rose more than threefold before, and the call was a good 3 years early. ............................................ In March 2000 when no one wanted old technology, the thoughtful idea of writing a 25 Phillip Morris straddle came up, earning $10 in premium. More than 5 months the bet was in the money. But after a half year the purchaser of said straddle won by a wide margin. If I remember correctly on expiration it was worth 25. ............................................ I demonstrated a lot of persistence when it came to selling this year. I concentrated my efforts around IMB, CFC and Alliance Leicester and some side bets in troubled preferreds; and of course, Lehman. I relied on the mortgage macro bet, not limited to subprime shortly after New Century, and HSBC run into their first publicly known troubles, then dubbed "the Mortgage D-Day". While I avoided shorting tech stocks most of the time (and this includes RIM and Apple), i had 2 ideas -that Google could go back to 200 by the yearend, -and that the listed exchanges (CME, BOT, NMX, ICE, ISE, NYX) would deflate only because of their ridiculous valuation. Wrong! All of those stocks trade at more than double the prices I had in mind. .......................................... I think everyone has some weak spot, and should have the right to a bad call. Ask our anaysts! Ask Jim Cramer. One bad call every week doesnt hurt. "We have Armageddeon!" I ask you, do we really have? .......................................... Having said that, I feel honoured by the fact that you upped my $1000 target for the Bullion to now, $3000. Of course there are about 2 years between now and then, and the gold chart looked overbought and toppish as ever. (not to overlook, we talk 3000 further devalued US dollars now).