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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: queenleah who wrote (1296)	10/1/2007 7:28:41 PM
From: Elmer Phud	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2121

It's called analyzing historical data. Queen - It's surprising people need that explained to them. If they had traded stock retroactively there would be a material impact. The constant whine about the reflective realization that the secular bear ended in '06 is another one of those frivolous accusations because there was no material impact for those who were following Bob's advice. But when they need something to complain about I guess they have to make due with whatever they can scrape up.

To: queenleah who wrote (1296)	10/1/2007 8:51:29 PM
From: Honey_Bee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2121

Ms Queen...Bob Brinker retroactively declared the secular bear megtrend over, but not because of any "analyzing historical data." The "historical data that he "analyzed" caused him to reach the following conclusions: May 2006 "Marketimer," Bob Brinker said, "The current cyclical bull market, which in our view is unusual in terms of its length, has had to battle the headwinds of the secular bear megatrend that began in the first quarter of Year 2000. ...........by definition, the secular bear megatrend will continue as long as the S&P 500 Index is unable to achieve a significant breakthrough of its March, 2000 historic high. We estimate the likely duration of this secular bear megatrend within a broad range of eight to twenty years, and we are now into year seven." Here are some comments by the host of this thread, David Korn. These comments were written in February 2007 -- SEVEN MONTHS after Brinker now claims the secular bear megatrend ended and well before BRINKER'S DEFINITION of what would signal the end happened. David Korn wrote the following: . BOB BRINKER'S LONG TERM STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK . Caller: This caller asked Bob how he handles cyclical markets within the longer term secular markets and what level he thought the S&P 500 would go to before the bear market arrives. Bob said he hasn't put a final number on where the S&P 500 will go to and that is something he evaluates on a continuous basis in his newsletter. However, Bob said that what we do know is that within secular trends, there are no cases where a trend has gone beyond the previous peak by more than 10%. That has never happened and so until it happens, Bob said the secular trend is intact. . EC: When the bear market came in 2000-2002, Bob said he would stay with his forecast of a secular bear market unless the market exceeded its prior high by 5%. Today's statement marks a change in that Bob now says the new highs must be breached by 10%. Perhaps Bob did more study of secular markets to come up with this number. Whatever the case, Bob remains convinced that the secular bear market is still here. . Brinker Comment: The secular bear market trend began in 2000 when the S&P 500 was up in the 1500s. The S&P 500 has not gone above the prior high of 1527 on a closing basis. In fact, it remains in the mid-1400s at this point. In order for it to move beyond an existing secular trend, such as the one we've had the past seven years, you would have to exceed it by at least 10%. . EC: This comment clarifies that Bob does not include dividends in his secular forecast. Why? I have no idea. He lambasted advisors who don't include dividends when making calculations a few weeks ago. Perhaps he realizes that when you include dividends, the Wilshire 5000 is already above its prior highs. Or, maybe he just analyzes price (excluding dividends) when conducting cyclical/secular market analysis. I don't include dividends when doing my studies of past cyclical bull/bear markets. . Brinker Comment: There are many cases where the market has exceeded the prior secular highs in terms of single digit percentages. This happened, for example, back in the 1966--1982 secular bear trend. There were many times when the cyclical bull market high exceeded the secular trend by 4%, 5% or even 6%; however, there was no case where it exceeded the high by 10% or more. So for now, the secular trend remains intact because the S&P 500 has been unable to exceed the prior high of 1527 by anything close to 10%. In fact, it's never even been back to that level and remains below that level today. .