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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVTucker who wrote (91384)	10/2/2007 3:56:20 PM
From: Umunhum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206123

if you haven't heard an intelligent argument for lower crude prices going forward then you aren't listening. I'm not saying lower prices are a done deal, but higher prices aren't a done deal, either. I read and listen to everything that I can get my hands on. Crude demand in the US declined last year. Going forward demand is going to continue to decline. That's generally what happens when less of something is produced. The price tends to rise too :o) If you want to see a detailed picture of how crude prices could go lower, CERA is a good outfit that is bearish on crude prices. CERA has been wrong about everything that I have ever read from them. I don't know how Daniel Yergin can be taken seriously by anybody that has listened to what he say for more than a year or two. The guy obviously has some kind of agenda because nobody could be that stupid.

To: GVTucker who wrote (91384)	10/2/2007 4:38:36 PM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 206123

Crude demand in the US declined last year That's not surprising since crude demand in either flat or declining slightly in most of the 30 advanced countries in the OECD. The first spreadsheet on this page eia.doe.gov shows that most of the consumption increases are in the oil exporting countries plus China and to a lesser extent, India. You back them out and there is little consumption growth worldwide. I think one of Unmunhum's key premises is that the exporters are looking at their own internal demand and rising populations and deciding that they should export less. They know that reducing exports will bring higher prices for their remaining exports plus keep their populations happy and conserve resources for future generations. Sounds like a win-win-win for them and I agree with Umunhum that this will be a important driver towards higher prices in the future. The antagonism in many of the exporting countries towards the Western democracies and especially the US is also an important factor pointing towards reduced exports.