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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (23429)	10/2/2007 10:40:26 PM
From: Condor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217802

Jay Can you help here? Thx C Message 23933612

To: TobagoJack who wrote (23429)	10/3/2007 12:29:18 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217802

Post-mortem tech bubble after 7 years. Key important points: Tech bubble was a localized phenomenon. Center of gravity OECD countries There were few countries that could fuel the bubble because the vast majority were only consumers, they didn’t have the industries to sell tech products Main drivers: Internet was nascent and mobile networks taking off Once cold war ended a plethora of technologies were made available for civilian uses. Many entrepreneurs, engineers and scientists saw the market for technologies exclusive of military use. GSM networks were taking off and agglutinated in the tech boom. PC mature making computers were cheap enough By the time it kick-started, PCs were cheap enough to be mass marketed. Asia could ship them by the truck load. Windows easy to use was already established Lasted too long. The length is an important factor. Students went to the university to cash in on it providing cheap specialized labor Telecom ACT of 1996 added fuel. This is important because: 1) Telecommunications moved to become tech and added critical mass. Telcoms was until them like water, sewage and electricity just an public service utility 2) companies not sure how the Act would come out, went to foreign countries to sell their gear. Case in point cable TV Those were the planets that aligned to make the bubble possible. Today for an investment bank perspective, they have anything to compare with what is going today and go back to the only thing they saw in their short life time. The tech bubble. But we know for sure they are wrong. Thus, this, what’s going on right now, namely, the emerging markets’ boom, it is not a repetition of the tech bubble.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (23429)	10/3/2007 12:44:02 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217802

"Judging from the flows of funds from investors in the developed countries into emerging market funds, it is fairly clear where most of that money is heading. Eastwards" How about the money going westwards? China was buying U.S. paper wasn’t it? How about from moolah rich GCC countries to the west? From China that bought the Blackstone Group as the mechanism to invest westwards? The China $200bn Sovereign fund? There's a few cents going south, and even this small change is not staying there. It is going back to buy companies that match the strategies of the big exporters. The arrow, doesn't point in a single direction only. You should send a reply to that email, TJ!

To: TobagoJack who wrote (23429)	10/3/2007 12:46:15 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217802

Capital is not going to be kept confined inside China. Day will come that that export platform no longer suit the capital owners and it will spread from there. Message 23234177

To: TobagoJack who wrote (23429)	10/3/2007 1:30:07 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217802

Asia approaching 'bubble' territory in many Asian equity markets? Nothing could be farther from truth. The currencies are not going up! They are just recovering to where they were already in 1997/98. But today is not 1997/98. Because they have reserves... Now what we need is to reach where they were in 1997/98 and then from there take off... klaser use the term false start for Brazil post 1994. Byt the same token, we can use the 90's as Asia's false start. this is the real start.