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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (36097)	10/3/2007 1:54:35 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95566

Just my opinion: If you are looking for GOOG, you won't find it in Cary's 8 stocks. When the market least expects it, then these stocks will move. It may be 10 days, 10 months or 10 years. It is typical of a sector to fall out of favor for many years after it was the market's darling. That is what we've seen in the market's approach to this sector. It was a darling leading into the 2000 bubble and we may never see that type of rising tide again. If that's what you are looking for, then look at China stocks or somewhere else and go with the mo-mo players. Those players have not been involved in this sector for quite a while. There are always winners and if you had been holding WFR or VSEA for the past year, you'd be smiling from ear to ear. I do keep in mind that you are asking the question about SCE stocks on the day where a major analyst company put out a downgrade on future expectations. Timing is very important when chosing a company to invest in. Not sure if this is helpful or not? TO

To: michael97123 who wrote (36097)	10/4/2007 9:14:57 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 95566

Good questions but I think you have underestimated the quality of SOME of the stocks we hold. First, check out the chart showing AMAT home.netcom.com #1 It is up about 110% since the bottom plus a tiny dividend. The S&P500 has only doubled but it has paid a dividend so it is roughly equal to AMAT since the bottom. You can't pick the winning stock like Google every time. What if you had picked MSFT or Maxim? home.netcom.com MSFT is only up 50% since the bottom and MAXIM is at the bottom except for a few days it spiked lower in selling frenzies. #2 Back to the AMAT chart... AMAT is back at peak earnings, this is REAL earnings that accounts for Stock Option theft by management from us shareholders. Thus, the EPS listed today is much more "real" than in 2000. Higher EPS quality and Peak EPS and yet we are at 1/3 the peak price.... with a below market PE and PEG according to Don's weekly summary. That is what I look for in stocks to buy, not take profits in. The other stocks on Cary's list... He couldn't get me to invest in Maxim.... The culture there was... let me say... "not shareholder friendly" so I avoided it as a stock to buy near its lows in 01-03.... today it is back at those lows and up less than 50% from its bottom. If they can grow earnings and retain employees who are given stock options and 20% less salary than they could get elsewhere... it would be a fine company to own.... but the chart shows EPS turned lower bigcharts.marketwatch.com Cary couldn't convince me to buy NVLS... I said it had the "SpeedFam Curse" and I was right. Today NVLS might be a decent value play... but I don't listen to conf calls about CMP or market share. I'm happy with LRCX and see no reason to take profits in LRCX, pay taxes then buy a company that still looks to be in a down trend where EPS is still lower than in many past quarters. bigcharts.marketwatch.com I did buy some ALTR from Cary's list a few years back and have some nice gains, but I'm not sure how it has done relative to the S&P.... I do like the EPS chart and the technical chart shows a reverse head and shoulder breakout going back many years... so that could be a good gainer in the next 2 yrs... home.netcom.com I did not buy XLNX from Cary's list... Hard to explain why... I met someone who worked at XLNX at a friend's house in Los Altos Hills. He said XLNX was trying to get by without cutting staff like ALTR... Another friend was laid off from ALTR who had poor English skills but was in marketing when they were hard pressed to find qualified workers... ALTR was making the tough cuts so I invested. Buy when the blood is in the streets type of deal... Looks like I got lucky with ALTR vs XLNX as ALTR has had market returns since the bottom while XLNX has under performed. I've made good money trading UTEK which Cary didn't like. As a LT investment, he was probably right on that stock but it has peaked and bottomed out of phase with many of the others. home.netcom.com AMAT and ALTR and LRCX have been much better stocks. LRCX is my top stock, close to my largest individual holding and I did great in it and it is at 2000 highs... home.netcom.com Cary didn't like LRCX.. so he was right on UTEK and wrong on LRCX and NVLS. According to Don's numbers and my own analysis, LRCX is cheap even if they have flat earnings. Given they are taking share and growth in semis is expected to be anemic, not negative, LRCX should continue to do well going forward.