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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: benwood who wrote (87309)	10/3/2007 10:22:18 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 110194

# # gold/pm stocks -- trotsky, 13:02:07 10/03/07 Wed both gold and gold stocks still look surprisingly resilient here. from a wave count perspective, it seems as if XAU/HUI have just built a corrective wave 4 (which may yet become more complex). combined with the excellent backdrop on the quantitative sentiment front, this would argue for at least one more leg up. that said, the speculative net long position in COMEX gold futures continues to loom large, as does the oversold state of the US dollar index (and the corollary, the overbought euro, Australian dollar, loonie, etc.). it is probably best to sit tight with relatively tight stops on trading positions. note in this context that general market risk seems high - in fact it seems higher than at the summer top, as the recent advance has been even more selective. there is rotation in evidence, as some of the more oversold sectors find buyers (such as homebuilder stocks), which actually looks bullish, but option traders are way too giddy. every market sector has seen its put/call OI ratio drift into the 'optimism' percentile, with the exception of gold and banks.