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Technology Stocks : Spansion Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rink who wrote (2094)	10/4/2007 9:58:21 AM
From: BUGGI-WO	Respond to of 4590

@Rink - Samsung I think Samsung will enter a tough phase right now. We know, that their memory business is only a part of the whole story, but a big part. When we look at the Micron numbers they were not good and we have to keep in mind, that the september month was not in Microns quarter, which was bad price-wise. The DRAM guys have a hard time right now and spot-prices keep falling and falling - I haven't thought, that DRAM could turn to such a bad environment. The problem for the next quarter al- ready is, that average prices will very likely again fall and they are so low already, that even Samsung will not earn a penny. They have some good at the NAND sector, where prices remained healthy, but Toshiba is very aggressive and Micron is ramping as hard as they can - the same could be seen at Hynix. The gold days for Samsung with "no competition" are gone, they are gone in DRAM, where other have plenty of 300mm and 70/80nm too and in the NAND space, we could see the same. Micron is very aggressive with its 50nm node. I don't know what this means for NOR, but as DRAM and NAND get worse for Samsung, I don't find it likely, that they want to establish even lower NOR prices, where they are loosing money (probably) too. The biggest problem for the DRAM guys I'm seeing now is that prices are already so low in the strongest seasonal half. If they don't tend to go up sharply in the next weeks, Q1 and Q2 will be ugly - I could see prices for 512Mbit DDR2 DIEs under 1$ (1,2$ now spot). It would be a hard time for all players and nobody will earn a penny. I'm not sure that this will help Spansion first-hand, but I hope, that NOR price pressure could ease somewhat, because of the stated assumption. The whole DRAM industry could be very interesting next year, as the smaller players will have a very tough time -> the big boys have enough cash, but what will the smaller guys doing? I like QI very much, because they a lean and cheap now, but the next quarters should be bad for them and I see more stock price pressure. As time goes on, QI should be a takeover target, when IFX is willing to sell a large part. IFX was so stupid, but that another long story ... BUGGI