Iowa caucus or bust for Barack Obama
BY MICHAEL SAUL
DAILY NEWS POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
Monday, October 8th 2007, 4:00 AM
CRESCO, Iowa - Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus is looking more and more like a last chance for the Democrats seeking to halt Sen. Hillary Clinton's march to the party's nomination.
"Anybody who loses Iowa will have an uphill battle from that point forward," said John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator, after talking to voters gathered in a lumber shed in this tiny northeast Iowa town. "It applies to any of us."
With Clinton (D-N.Y.) dominating national polls, widening her big lead in New Hampshire and now outpacing all her rivals, including even Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), in fund-raising, she could be unstoppable if she takes Iowa.
With three months to go, the race here remains close, although Clinton is showing some momentum. A Des Moines Register poll released yesterday of likely caucus-goers showed Clinton ahead at 29%, with Obama at 22% and Edwards at 23%.
Terry McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee chairman, made eight stops last Wednesday drumming up support for Clinton, and warned supporters in Cedar Rapids, "We're not in first place here."
Obama completed a four-day, 10-city campaign swing on Friday, the same day Edwards began his own four-day, 17-city tour. Not to be outdone, Clinton came in Saturday for her own four-day marathon, beginning with the Johnson County Democrats Barbecue in Iowa City.
Of the three leading Democrats, Obama has spent the most money on TV ads and the most time in the state this year. Edwards, who came in second in the Iowa caucus in 2004, is campaigning aggressively in the state's rural areas.
As of Saturday night, he's visited 79 of the state's 99 counties, compared with 56 for Obama and 31 for Clinton.
"Rural areas and the smaller towns have a disproportionate impact on the result of the caucus," said Edwards, clad in blue jeans.
Earlier this year, Team Clinton caused a stir here when a leaked campaign memo suggested she might skip the caucus. But since then, Clinton has made clear she's competing in the state.
"We're building, we're gaining," said Teresa Vilmain, Clinton's Iowa director. "We've never said Iowa is ground zero because we're ahead in every other state."
For Edwards and Obama, a loss in Iowa is most likely fatal - and their campaigns have admitted as much.
"If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it's just a dream," Michelle Obama recently told a group of Iowans. David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, told The New Republic, "Iowa - that's the whole shebang!"
Gordon Fischer, the former head of the state Democratic Party and a newly minted Obama supporter, said he believes a win in Iowa is necessary for every candidate - even Clinton.
"There's going to be a major slingshot effect coming out of Iowa," he said. "If you're the front-runner, you have to win."
Many Iowa voters, who are known for their tough scrutiny of candidates, said the 2008 contest is still unpredictable because the top contenders are so well liked.
Joe Golden, 68, a retiree from Washington, Iowa, voted for Edwards in 2004 and intends to do so again. But that didn't stop him from attending an Obama event.
"I'm challenging them - change my mind," he said.
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