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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (87494)	10/9/2007 9:47:32 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 110194

WSJ: Strip-Mall Vacancies Hit 7.4% online.wsj.com NOTE: This is the highest vacancy rate in 5 1/2 years - a little bit higher, and this will the highest rate in over 16 years!!! The CRE slowdown is here. Excerpt: U.S. strip-mall vacancies only inched up in the third quarter, but still hit a 5½-year high ... Rentals of retail space in weak housing markets are getting hit disproportionately hard, as consumers rein in their purchases. The retail sector has been a pillar of the commercial real-estate industry -- and the overall economy -- for the last seven years ... The strip-mall vacancy rate rose to 7.4% in the third quarter, from 7.3% in the second quarter and 7% in the year-earlier period. Along with the first quarter of 2002, when the vacancy rate was also 7.4%, that level was the highest in 11 years, according to a survey of 76 U.S. retail markets by Reis. ... Shopping-mall vacancies have shown no impact from the housing problems yet. Because of malls' long lease terms, economic problems typically take 18 months to 24 months to show up in vacancies and rents.

To: TH who wrote (87494)	10/9/2007 9:49:54 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

I'm sure you'll have your chance. Yes time is on your side. Remains to be seen if prices do not bottom on what you are looking for for another three or four years... Or we get a nasty downturn over the course of a 12-18 months or so as the floodgates finally open and you finally get reasonable prices again as I now am seeing in parts of Florida.. Follow the REO's and level of debt taken on by these owners in the buildings that interest you for the answer.... As bearish as I was on housing 2-3 years ago I couldn't ever of imagined a 50%+ drop on single family anywhere in only 2 years..