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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6678)	10/16/2007 3:12:58 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 50744

fine post thanks

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6678)	10/22/2007 11:07:59 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50744

Gold: Finding Truth through the Fog... Last week I talked about this being a "Truth, or Dare" moment for both gold and gold bugs. Over the last few weeks we've witnessed the HUI gold stock index finally break through it's 15 month long resistance level of 370...and soar to a new highs of HUI 423. But, we weren't the only ones who noticed... Gold's move once again reached the headlines. Inflation was back on the front page as Oil raced toward $100, and gold roared back toward new highs. The Fed noticed, the ECB noticed, the BOJ noticed, the BOE noticed, the IMF noticed, currency traders noticed...and gold bugs found themselves setting atop a 140+ point move up off the August HUI 280 bottom. Risk was ramping - as reward potential was diminishing. What was a prudent bug to do? Well I had 3 suggestions: 1. Take "some" (not all) chips off the table and lock in some gains. 2. Buy some puts for insurance and an interim trade on expected profit taking, the downdraft from this correction in the broad market, and a potential smackdown from the PPT prior to the Oct. 30th & 31st Fed meetings. 3. Get positioned to buy back the correction and pocket some profits on our puts. And where do we stand now? Well here's the bad news: It was a tough day and a tough week for gold stocks, with the HUI now down 29 points off it's recent highs. But... we expected that, no real surprise. Message 23970201 And now the good news: Gold, the metal stood long and strong. So, where does that leave us? Well in my opinion, we're in one of those - "it's always darkest before dawn" moments. The broad market is selling off and gold stocks are being taken down with it - no real surprise there. We're flying through some fog and experiencing a little turbulence here... so it's time to navigate by our "TA" instruments. And just what do the instruments tell us? Gold stocks (the HUI index) are still outperforming: -- Gold (the metal) by 5%. -- Japanese Yen by 12%. -- The DOW Index by 20%. -- The Euro Dollar by 23%. -- And the U.S. Dollar by 28%. How's that for a little "truth" !?!?! Tradingwise...fwiw: here's what I'm doing: 1. I locked in gains by taking some chips off the table at 370, 400 and into 420. 2. I added some puts at those 3 levels as well - for both insurance on what I continue to hold, and as a trade on a test of HUI 370 as support. 3. I am "daring" the HUI to hold 370 as new support. My hope is that we test 370 prior to the Fed announcement next week. Ideally, if my trade sets up perfectly... I'll get a chance to cash in my puts...and buy some calls prior to what I expect will be another Fed rate cut. 4. Obviously, the Fed meeting next week is key. 5. If they cut (and I think they will), I believe gold turns on a dime and gold stocks are off to the races again. 6. If they don't cut, then taking some chips off the table and buying some puts will have paid off... and I'll probably be looking to "sell" puts -- cushioning and discounting my next buy level -- at what I feel is our next level of support, the HUI's 200 dma around 340-345ish. Buckle up buggers... Gold has dared Bernanke and the truth is about to set us free. S.O.T.B.