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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (1561)	10/16/2007 10:15:40 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71427

Or so they say. Intragovernmental Holdings of US treasuries 7/31/2007 3,928,721,566,851.08 08/31/2007 3,908,710,444,762.10 09/26/2007 3,927,463,067,391.87 10/01/2007 4,005,315,947,997.31 10/15/2007 4,010,452,024,654.03 treasurydirect.gov Where, oh where did the 100 billion bailout come from?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (1561)	10/16/2007 11:54:15 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 71427

Well, given that increase, I'll be looking for the source in the next report. My guess would be London and the Caribbean, at least, that's the players I'll be looking for -g- Jobs reports are mostly manufactured nowadays, with numbers coming from birth/death model, which corresponds to the an imaginary number of jobs the government assumes were added.

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (1561)	10/17/2007 5:41:06 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 71427

The dollar drop was 0.1% in August, as the crumbling carry trade supported the dollar. The dollar dropped a lot post-cut, as the carry trade recovered and sold the dollar. The dollar peg then worked its magic to increase foreign CB purchases (as the dollar drops, the CBs in the countries where currencies are pegged to the dollar are forced to purchase dollars... by the dollar drop), but.. the point is, the dollar is still much lower. Unless the Fed or ECB change their stance on interest rates or the carry trade blows up, the dollar will keep dropping. If foreign growth accelerates while US growth slows down, the dollar will keep dropping, as this will shift the Fed funds probabilities. The only way the Fed can support the dollar is if they raise the rates into the slowing economy and cause a stock market meltdown, but they are unwilling to do that. At some point foreign CBs will cry "uncle" and de-peg. Some are doing that now, some are waiting. Waiting for oil=100? This will be the point of the dollar crisis. That, or the point when US economy goes into recession, and Fed funds probabilities automatically shift to much lower rates, forcing the Fed to act.