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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (24274)	10/17/2007 5:32:02 PM
From: abuelita	Respond to of 218823

good post moe. i'd give it a recommendation but that doesn't mean anything anymore. its probably actually a detriment <g> -rose

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (24274)	10/17/2007 8:09:38 PM
From: Riskmgmt	Respond to of 218823

Hi MQ: Thanks for the input on the sub-prime. Your thoughts echo my own as far as more to come. I think we are nearer the "tip of the ice-berg than the end, the banks will play around with "special funds" and other schemes to make the losses public a bit at a time to avoid panic. I think they have gotten the cooperation of the Government because, as you state, it's much bigger than sub-prime, it is in the trillions and it is global. The inflated prices are more severe in other places UK, Spain, Ireland maybe N.Z. and so the UK and Euro banks and Governments are concerned that it could spread and cause a world-wide asset deflation. So, how to profit from it? (other than buying Q-com) US has to try to avoid a collapse of housing, an orderly erosion/depreciation, much like they are doing with the dollar, is acceptable, even better would be a plateauing or slight appreciation, along with some confidence and liquidity coming back in the Mortgage market. This would allow some owners that need to, to sell or refinance. My guess is that they will try to achieve this through lowering rates a bit more and giving lenders some incentives to make new loans. But it is not going to be easy,especially if momentum picks up on the downside and panic sets in. One can expect the usd to weaken further, mid to long term, maybe a bounce short term. Banks to continue to take hits to earnings for some time. More lenders to go BK, Countrywide? Plan 1. Short usd and/or long other currencies. 2 TJ's favorite Gold 3. Equities of foreign companies-emerging markets selectively, or US companies with international businesses. 4. Buy international Real Estate where prices are still attractive. Or buy funds that do. There are a few more things, shorting banks, HB's etc but the HB's are very beat up already so that is a bad risk/reward at this point. The banks seem to be able to play around so much with there numbers who knows when the real hits come to their stocks. There is also a fund Shiller talks about that profits from the falling house prices but the name escapes me-will have to google it later. Ray