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To: Woody who wrote (11813)	10/18/2007 1:07:31 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 12410

We had 9 of those this Summer, and nothing happened, except the market briefly trading down 10% in August. We can work both ways now into expiration, but there got to be a move once the market makes up its mind on direction. The longer it can't rally, the higher the probability it will be a move down. -g-

To: Woody who wrote (11813)	10/18/2007 2:01:05 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 12410

"Monday was a confirmed Hindenburg Omen ".... interesting........ so........ it's the second time within 36 days not a first unconfirmed....? wikipedia Criteria The occurrence of all five criteria on one day is often referred to as an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen. A confirmed Hindenburg Omen occurs if a second (or more) Hindenburg Omen signals occur during a 36-day period from the first signal. Conclusions The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash is 25%