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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (28615)	10/18/2007 7:06:19 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78717

IMO, 1 month puts are just a very risky bet and not a portfolio insurance. You are not only making a debatable macro call - that US economy is bad - but you are also timing it to a very short period of time. Your money though. BTW, I am not sure what "portfolio insurance" means in general. IMO 99% of it is money thrown away. If you don't see a reason to invest or think something is overvalued, sell it. Or buy something else. Or at least do a reasonable DD. I really doubt you calculated the probability of US going into recession, probability of that happening in November, probability of S&P dropping to 900 or whatever, how much it would affect your portfolio and then bought the needed amount of "insurance". I can bet that you looked at the sky, said "maybe it's going to rain" and then plunged a wad of cash for an expensive umbrella that will dissolve in a month. Real insurance is the stuff BRKA guys do and even they miss sometimes. The wild guesses where the wind is blowing is not insurance.