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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (92383)	10/19/2007 4:38:27 PM
From: GraceZ	Respond to of 306849

You asked about buying the stock. I also have a very high opinion of the company, just not the stock. Chad has been quoted repeatedly as saying that the optimal percent of owned to controlled is 50/50. At the top they were forced to own more than they optioned but I'd say they are heavier on the controlled (optioned) than the owned at this juncture because they've been aggressive at putting smaller houses and townhouses on land originally obtained for large SFHs or selling off developed (but not built on) lots to other smaller builders. They are really good at hitting the demand in an environment with declining affordability because they have a full range of products. I can tell the projects are getting smaller because I have to do a lot more lens correction as the lens needed to shoot interiors gets wider and wider. They haven't gotten stuck with empty houses, just try to find a "move in" house in any major metro area, they don't have many. They did what CEN did in that they stopped selling most divisions to specs about a year and a half ago so they aren't competing with specs racing down for the bottom. They got left holding high priced land in CA in the last downturn and it almost took them down. Around the height of the RE craziness they had very few CA divisions going up because they stayed light on land there. Where they were going, were high growth mid-Atlantic markets and in the South which still had attractive land prices and rising demand. Their divisions in MD/DE are still selling because the area has increasing need for new housing due to the ever increasing Federal government.