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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CapitalistHogg™ who wrote (1655)	10/20/2007 9:22:00 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

Credit spreads have widened significantly again this week, which is why treasuries rallied, and October rate cut probability increased to 100%. More cuts will likely be needed. I don't think now the dollar will rally, not at all. While trade deficit numbers should normally improve when the economy slows down, high oil price makes that virtually impossible. Got stagflation? I expect another record for foreign dumping of US assets soon. Why? Cause they hold these bonds. They will sell what they can. They can't sell some mortgage securities, but they still can sell other securities. It's nuts to think they will buy dollars now, all IMHO. Gold did NOT go down, the dollar dropped to a new low. Still loaded on the dollar drop, but shifted a bit from gold to Yen. A high spec position in gold makes me a bit uncomfortable. I have stops for gold as well. A recession is not good for commodities, including gold. Oh, I know the cries it is a currency, which are partially correct - gold has a currency side, and a commodity side to it. In general, I would expect gold to rally in dollar terms.