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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Voodoo who wrote (24368)	10/21/2007 3:09:26 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217571

I am not sure that China really wants a broad range of technology right now. There will always be a few specific technology items on any countries wish list, of course. Technology and doing your own R&D mean risk, and I expect China doesn't need more risk taking. At 10% GDP growth, I expect they just need to keep the FDI coming in, raw materials, including oil, coal and metals, and keep the products flowing out. Seven years at 10% doubles China's GDP. Somewhere around year 8 or 9 the majority of China's population will have moved out of poverty. Even assuming a slowing to about a 5% growth rate after year 8, by 2020 per capita GDP should be roughly where Mexico's is today. By then, maybe less than 20% of the people would make under $2000 a year. By then, the Chinese economy will be larger than Japan's. At that point, more organization for the internal market and a more consumer driven economy will be occurring. That's a really big win - and I expect that China's overriding goal is to get to this wider prosperity before the window closes. The window could close because of oil shortages, bird flu, SARS, Russia attacking, world economic depression, climate change, meteor impact, volcanoes, earthquakes, etc. Or something as slow as Japan getting grayer and consuming instead of suppling capital.