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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (87880)	10/23/2007 1:53:59 PM
From: ldo79	Respond to of 110194

Not to worry.................... Bond insurers' products in demand as credit fears worsen By Lavonne Kuykendall Last Update: 1:14 PM ET Oct 23, 2007 CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Assured Guaranty (AGO) became the third major bond insurer Tuesday to say it will report a loss in the third quarter as it marks down the market value of its credit derivatives portfolio. It is also the third to note that new business production soared in the quarter, as demand for financial guaranty insurance and credit protection rises in the face of an uncertain market. Assured Guaranty said its third-quarter results will include an after-tax unrealized mark-to-market loss on derivatives of $163 million, or $2.40 a share, on financial guaranties written in credit default swap form. The mark-to-market figure represents the change in the market value of the derivatives which would only be realized if the derivatives were sold. "The widening of credit spreads, which has caused the decline in the value of our in-force derivatives book, has also created significant demand and favorable pricing for new business," Dominic Frederico, Assured Guaranty's president and chief executive, said in a late Monday press release. The company also said new business production for the quarter was up 30% to a record $166 million. Earlier this month, Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) said that its third quarter mark-to-market adjustment will result in an unrealized pre-tax loss of $743 million, and that the company expects to report a net loss per share up to $3.50. Ambac's new business production in the quarter was $430 million, about double its production for the year-ago quarter. Security Capital Assurance (SCA) also pre-reported a third-quarter sales increase of $140 million to balance a mark-to-market loss of $145 million. "The impact of improved pricing and improved demand for the product is appearing more quickly than we had thought" among the bond insurers, said Fox-Pitt, Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller analyst Gary Ransom in a Tuesday note. MBIA Corp. , the largest bond insurer, has said it will wait until it reports its third quarter results Thursday. Shares of Assured Guaranty rose 1.1% to $26.84 in recent trading, while shares of Ambac dropped 3.2% to $56.27, Security Capital Assurance dropped 5% to $17.02, and MBIA dropped 1.3% to $58.14. tinyurl.com

To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (87880)	10/23/2007 3:34:42 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Respond to of 110194

What you are witnessing isn't real but this is stockcharts.com -g-

To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (87880)	10/23/2007 3:56:11 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Dude, the storm was canceled. Didn't you get the memo?

To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (87880)	10/24/2007 4:15:02 AM
From: westpacific	Respond to of 110194

Calm before the storm, we are very close..... There is still a window ahead before we peak, aka 1929 and 1987. You do not want to be short too soon. Super Cycle peak is in as of mid 2008. We will have our deflation - credit cycles always end with such. If we are still alive in June/July of 2008 get out of this market and begin to build a bigger and bigger short position. Near term, a rate cut or other 'engineering could still breath life into this beast. Charts are still very much bullish. SPX 1450 could get it done.....watch that number - if we hold it short squeezes could cost you a ton of money. The dollar is dead and may be on its last legs as a 'reserve currency' - oil is high not only because of peak oil, but also because those that own real wealth 'needed commodities' want more toilet paper in kind if going to do the trade! West -posting much, much less - will stick my head in from time to time. Focused on money management and charts taking up all my time.

To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (87880)	10/25/2007 9:29:30 AM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

As a follow-up to my previous post: Message 23991567 with regard to things "seeming odd" in the markets: Yesterday's volatility (in many cases) on high volume just seems to confirm that there is near-term cause for concern. There are many other technical factors that also seem to be somewhat alarming...and of course a fundamental backdrop that doesn't seem to be getting any better. At any rate if the major indices drop below recent lows (such as SPX below ~ 1490) I think it would confirm suspicions of possible steep drops. SPX currently at 1512.71 SSB