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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NAG1 who wrote (70296)	10/24/2007 7:00:11 AM
From: inaflash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

Apple guided to over 9 billion in revenues for the present quarter. Still haven't had a chance to listen to the cc but have they given any breakdown about where they are expecting these revenues to come from? I was just thinking if half of the new revenue is computer related, with an asp of $1,500 per computer, that would mean Apple is looking to sell about a million more computers this present quarter than the previous quarter and we should be looking at over 3 million cpus sold this quarter. That would be about a 50% increase in cpu sales over what is by far, already the best quarter that Apple has ever had selling computers. That would make the present quarter just a monster quarter and would mean that the halo effect is accelerating significantly. If you include that with the great new ipods and the phones as well as the rumors about a subnotebook vs a newton, Apple's next fiscal year could be a monster year and we could be looking at earnings approaching or, if you really want to think aggressively, passing $6 dollars per share which would put the present forward looking pe, subtracting out the $20 per share that Apple has in cash, less than 30. I don't know if the market has fully digested this or not but if and when they do, I wouldn't put it past Apple to be over $200. The numbers here are mind boggling to me and I would imagine to most here who have followed Apple over the years through thick and thin. Last year they made over $7B in Q1 on 1.6M Mac sales and 21M iPods. I suspect the target involves less than 3M Macs (though near 2.5-2.8 range guess, and it will be awesome if they can achieve that mark) and over 25M iPods, which is an even more impressive given the maturation of the product. With Leopard out and new Mac Pros due soon, there might be a shift towards higher ASP products. A $2000 range subcompact notebook is rumored, and would be a pleasant surprise. Several analysts have come out with targets over $200, which before this last quarter seemed a bit rosy, but might just be on the mark.

To: NAG1 who wrote (70296)	10/24/2007 8:08:05 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 213182

Apple guided to over 9 billion in revenues for the present quarter. Still haven't had a chance to listen to the cc but have they given any breakdown about where they are expecting these revenues to come from? I was just thinking if half of the new revenue is computer related, with an asp of $1,500 per computer, that would mean Apple is looking to sell about a million more computers this present quarter than the previous quarter and we should be looking at over 3 million cpus sold this quarter. Amazingly, Apple is actually guiding for flat to sequentially down sales for the Mac. It seems that the vast majority of the revenue increase will come from iPods with some help from iPhone revenue recognition and Leopard sales. seekingalpha.com Ben Reitzes - UBS I don’t like to cheerlead, but nice quarter. The question is regarding the guidance. With regard to your usual pattern, Peter, you seem to be more conservative usually. You guided up versus the street by quite a bit to $9.2 billion, maybe arguably $700 million better. What are you seeing that allows you to be so confident in the face of some people being worried about the economy at this time? Peter Oppenheimer Regarding the economy, we’ll leave forecasting the global economy to others. But as I commented at the end, Apple is shipping the best products that we have ever made in our history. We just eclipsed the record that we set for Mac sales last quarter by 400,000. iPod sales accelerated after the transition and we’ll shipping the best iPods that we’ve ever made, and the iPhone is doing really, really well. So we’re quite confident in the business and we’ve exited the September quarter with a lot of momentum. Ben Reitzes - UBS More precisely on the guidance for iPods, it would seem that launching in September, did you feel that a lot of iPod sales are pushed into the December quarter and not necessarily pushed, but just naturally the full lineup hasn’t had a chance to be fully reflected and that’s part of the reason for the guidance as well, or -- and how do we reconcile the sequential for Macs as well? It would seem the guidance implies Macs are up. Peter Oppenheimer Let me begin with Macs and maybe I’ll let Tim address your iPod question. For Macs, in the two most recent quarters, units have been relatively flat from the September quarter to the December quarter, as our education business falls off and is more or less offset by holiday consumer buying. This year, it’s possible that Mac sales could be sequentially a little lower, given the extraordinary success of the back-to-school promotion, which intensified the seasonality of the September quarter. Ben Reitzes - UBS Okay, so you’re saying Macs could be lower due to that promotion? Okay. Peter Oppenheimer It could be. We had just a fantastic September quarter but really back to school and our higher ed results were an all-time high for the company. Timothy D. Cook Ben, in terms of iPod, sales accelerated dramatically after the introduction of the new iPod and based on some early market share data we’ve seen from the U.K., France, and Germany, our share is up significantly in the month of December, or September. The U.K. up 12 points, Japan up 12 points, and France up 6 points. Given these kinds of increases, we feel that we are very well positioned going into the holiday quarter.