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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (88047)	10/27/2007 7:29:14 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<China> China's population is currently 1,321 million. This graph: iiasa.ac.at shows that according to the medium variant it will probably top at 1,500 million and start declining before 2050. I think the low variant is much more likely. It shows China's population topping at 1,400 million and dropping well below current levels by 2050. This UN estimate: un.org shows that by 2050, China will have a larger percent of its population older than 60 years (30%) than the US (27%). You are forgetting that China's current fertility rate at 1.75 children/woman is lower than the US at 2.09 children per woman. And you are forgetting that there is a surplus of some 70 million males in China because of selective abortions. cia.gov One of the most fascinating demographic observations of the last few years is how fast fertility rates drop in developing countries once children are no longer needed to till the family plot and support their parents in their old age.