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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John McCarthy who wrote (70584)	10/28/2007 12:31:23 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

And the wolf will dwell with the lamb, and the leopard will lie down with the young goat, and the calf and the young lion and the fatling together and so on and so fourth. -g-

To: John McCarthy who wrote (70584)	10/28/2007 1:18:26 PM
From: 10K a day	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I would choose (e)

To: John McCarthy who wrote (70584)	10/28/2007 3:18:58 PM
From: Metacomet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

"Am I the only lost soul?" I don't think so. I think it is a testament to the evolution of the art of misinformation as a prime mover in our national life. We have already experienced its devastating results in our national political life. The high practitioners of "marketing" are now focused on things financial as they bring their withering barrage of why this or that obvious fact really isn't as it appears. In other words, they have finally answered the age old question: "Who ya gonna believe, me or your lieing eyes?" Obviously in many instances the shill is prevailing.

To: John McCarthy who wrote (70584)	10/29/2007 7:30:37 AM
From: John McCarthy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Like this post ... from Vi One way to look at it is that the international and commodity markets are growing too fast. The other way to look at it is that the dollar is falling much faster now, so the prices go up fast in terms of the rapidly depreciating dollar. Both parts are right, since commodities are going up faster than the dollar drops. Prices will slow or fall only if the world gets into a recession, IMHO. The problem is that the interest rates are still very accomodative, since the true rate of inflation is masked by the faulty government statistics that underestimates true rate of inflation a lot, at least in the US and, quite likely, in some other countries. The government, any government, NEVER EVER overestimates the rate of inflation, or reports it right, although some governments do a better job than other governments. Now, as USD drops, currencies in some foreign countries that are tied to the dollar, such as Chinese Yuan, drop as well (the dollar peg), causing excessive growth and excessive commodity consumption in countries that peg their currencies to the dollar. When they unpeg, we'll see a dramatic fall of the dollar (to, say, Bill's 40) and some deflation in the world, while US will experience hyperstagflation (some prices of assets might fall sharply, while prices of necessities will appreciate sharply). I would argue that's where we are now, with the bond prices and housing prices in a free fall, while inflation is on the rise. I'm not talking about the treasuries here, rather, corporate bonds and bonds tied to mortgages. We should see the stock market drop soon. However, I suspect that our markets are not free anymore, and a great deal of manipulation is going on in some places, at least the t-bond market that is so far from reflecting the true rate of inflation. Manipulation of the treasury market by the dealers was confirmed by the treasury a year ago, so I'm not making this up. When the treasuries are too high, interest rates get too low, and stock prices too high, because of asset allocation game between stocks and bonds (SP earnings yield vs 10-year Treasury bond yield is the name of the game) A lot of things don't make sense now in the markets because of persistent manipulation and persistent efforts to bail out some markets by the government. Message 24005030