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To: jackjc who wrote (51580)	10/29/2007 9:56:10 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 78419

'Just as the losses can't be paid in full, so also the gains would not accrue. Like a high stakes poker game played on credit instead of cash in full on the table. The huge losses never happen, nor the gains.' Gross misallocation's of capital with trillions in today's dollar going to money heaven such as the RTC in the early 90's ot telecom in the early 00's are no different than the residential housing bust and Iraq War of today.. Life goes on. Over the course of a lifetime, 80+ years, your dollar might get debased down to a couple of pennies.. Barrick Gold at another new high today. Life is good..

To: jackjc who wrote (51580)	10/29/2007 7:37:38 PM
From: Amark$p	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78419

Cyclepro update, first in over a year... geocities.com

To: jackjc who wrote (51580)	10/30/2007 3:34:02 AM
From: Amark$p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78419

I disagree somewhat with your comment: "But I see the derivative thing as a giant poker game, one parties loss is offset by the other parties gain. The game is zero sum and can't go broke." Your comment assumes NO third parties go bankrupt which are on the losing side of the trades. Some of these third parties may be in the Caymans/tax havens or otherwise have no forwarding address and/or have limited capital. This will freeze up the bank/credit system. FWIW, Don Coxe has stated same as you in comments several months ago (i.e. zero sum game), so this has lessened my concern somewhat. But I still believe third party derivative bankruptcies can/will? be a terminal event. This is the black swan...