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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (28750)	10/31/2007 10:38:13 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78673

Thank you Madharry - I originally purchased shares as a value opportunity when the stock IPO'ed 18 months ago but when it lost half it's value, I was not sure if I made the right decision. If you search the thread for "Drys" you can review my posts and decisions on my investment strategy. I doubled my position at $10 believing their fixed assets (ie ships) were selling below book value and their divided at the time generated good income while I waited for day rates to increase. Since that time day rates increased from $87,000/day to $187,000/day and the company was making fists full of money. The CEO continues to leverage the company using large amount of debt to replace their old ships with newer and larger ones and utilizes the spot market to maximize their current revenues ( a risky strategy). The company has decreased the average age of their fleet from 12 years to just under four years while increasing their earnings eight fold. At the current day rates, their entire fleet should be paid off in 36 months from their current cash flow. I have peeled off shares at various prices to pull my seed money out and book a healthy profit leaving 1/3 of my shares to run. Based on the current demand for their ships and the limited supply of new ships entering the market, Drys could be valued in the $250 range by the end of 2008, earning $25/share. This is a once in a life time run for me but it helps as I have my share of losers (ie WON) which offsets the huge gain. The key is to let your winners run, try not to trade too much around your position and evaluate the potential earnings prospects from time to time to validate that it is not a company specific event but a sustaining industry growth trend. Buying more at the low helped too. EKS

To: Madharry who wrote (28750)	10/31/2007 12:00:31 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78673

Madharry, I believe that when there's a parabolic rise over a short time frame during which a stock is discussed here, that rise is easily noticed. Made more evident to everybody when the stock itself sells at an absolutely high price - over $100/sh. for example. There have been a number of stocks discussed here that people owned that went on to become 15 baggers or more. These may not've been very noticeable (unless you owned the stock -g-) because: 1. The rise has occurred over several years. 2. There's not a continuous stream of posts on the stock to keep readers aware and informed of progress. 3. The stock has split several times. So harder to spot a 15x gain. Example: somebody aware a a stock selling between $25 and $50 during the past 12 months, maybe sees a double if stock's at $50. Not realizing unless looking at a 5-10 year chart, that the stock has historically done a few 2:1 splits when the stock is up at at those high prices. 4. The company got acquired at a high stock price, and the buying company's stock also performed well subsequently, or the buying company itself also eventually got bought out. So it's difficult for an observer of the stock market scene to see the success of the first company's stockholders (assuming these holders kept shares they received of the acquiring company/companies). Some areas that I'm aware of that have seen 15x gains over the life of the thread are homebuilders, refiners, maybe some healthcare, some tech stocks. (Madharry, you do not want me to mention that fruitly-named stock again -gg-. (I've recently sold 1/3 of my stub shares)). A few net-net or below-cash plays became tech stocks and once their rise began, the ascent was very rapid. SINA and another Chinese portal cash play were discussed here by somebody who wound up making a small fortune on maybe a 30+ bagger. I've yet to see here or experience a 100 bagger. (I still occasionally pull out my '72 copy of T.W. Phelps' "100:1 in the Stock Market" for a little motivational read.) --- EKS. Yes, congrats to you on a nice pick and holding on for the ride.