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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (28759)	10/31/2007 3:09:02 PM
From: Grommit	Respond to of 78618

just one day of energy news, nothing new here.... ............................. IEA May Show `Much Higher' Oil Price Assumption Next Week Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency is likely to show ``much higher'' oil price assumptions for 2030 in its World Energy Outlook next week, compared with its previous view on long-term prices, the agency's chief economist said. Should governments fail to limit oil demand growth or fail to find alternative energy sources, especially in China, India and developed nations, ``we may see price levels much higher than we conventionally believed in the past,'' the IEA's Fatih Birol said today at the Oil & Money conference in London. He said those assumptions will be reflected in the outlook. The Paris-based agency, an energy adviser to 26 industrialized nations, will publish the outlook on Nov. 7. ............................ World oil output struggling, say Arab experts Alex Lawler and Peg Mackey, Reuters Leading figures from the Middle East oil industry added their voices on Tuesday to those warning that the world is struggling to sustain rising oil production. "There is a real problem -- that supply may not be possible to increase beyond a certain level, say around 100 million barrels," Libya's National Oil Corporation chairman Shokri Ghanem said at an industry conference. "The reason is, in some countries production is going down and we are not discovering any more of those huge oil wells that we used to discover in the Sixties or the Fifties." Sadad al-Husseini was a key architect of Saudi Arabian energy production policy for more than a decade whilst a top official at state oil firm Saudi Aramco. He was even more pessimistic, saying world oil production had already plateaued. "We are already three years into level production," Husseini also told the annual Oil & Money conference, a gathering of top executives. (30 October 2007) ............. Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record $94.50 barrel in New York after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. inventories fell to a two-year low. Oil has advanced 15 percent this month. Stockpiles dropped 3.89 million barrels to 312.7 million barrels last week, the department said. It was the lowest since October 2005. A 400,000 barrel gain was expected, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York futures, fell 17 percent. ``We've lost a lot of oil at a time when we should be building supply for winter,'' said Phil Flynn, a senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``Nearly all the analysts expected inventories to rise, making this an extremely bullish number.'' > A U.S. Energy Department report today is expected to say that crude oil stockpiles rose 400,000 barrels last week, according to the median of 16 responses in the survey. ................................................. ...former head of Saudi Arabian exploration & production Sadad Al-Husseini told the world that he now believes that the current level of world oil production will likely never be exceeded. Al-Husseini's view coincides with that of T. Boone Pickens, who stated at ASPO-USA's Houston conference that the world oil production peaked in 2006. The 85 million barrels per day of liquids available to the markets now is all we're ever going to get Sadad I. Al-Husseini, an oil consultant and former executive at Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, gave a particularly chilling assessment of the world’s oil outlook. The major oil-producing nations, he said, are inflating their oil reserves by as much as 300 billion barrels. These amount to hypothetical reserves that are “not delineated, not accessible and not available for production.” Mr al-Huseini did not specify which countries had inflated their reserves in this fashion, but the number is strikingly similar to the size of reserve additions recorded by OPEC members in the mid-1980s when countries were vying for quota share, although no new discoveries had been made. However he did go on to question the production potential of some Gulf states, pointing out that 75% of Iranian production comes from mature fields that are more than 50% depleted. “That is not sustainable. When you hear officials saying production is going back up to up to over 5 million barrels [per day], that is not do-able”. He also noted that the 38 giant fields in the Arabian Gulf with reserves of over billion barrels each are on average 41% depleted. “These are the fields that in many forecasts are supposed to crank up and double production from the Gulf – again, very questionable”. ..............

To: Paul Senior who wrote (28759)	4/1/2008 8:55:02 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78618

Started a position in PWE. I will add this to my other Canroys. This position should generate good income. The company has one of the largest oil and gas reserves in the group. Started a new position in the Vanguard International Growth VWIGX fund. This is for the IRA and will allow good International stock exposure. quicktake.morningstar.com Peeled off shares of my Vanguard GNMA fund in both the IRA and Personal accounts as it is now trading near a multi year high within this low interest rate environment. finance.yahoo.com My longer term strategy is to start a slow transition out of my low yielding fixed income holdings and into higher yielding growth equities (value & international). Many of the International stocks had a pretty good jump today. You showed excellent patients over the last quarter with your steady buying of several of the beaten down value themes. I am sure many of these will pay off quite well for you once we emerge out of this economic slow down. EKS