Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	10/31/2007 8:39:24 PM
From: micdundee2	Respond to of 50214

amen

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	10/31/2007 8:53:22 PM
From: Jack Be Quick	Respond to of 50214

Slider- Great post. Thank you.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	10/31/2007 10:34:06 PM
From: fxfun	Respond to of 50214

Best post of the day! "there comes a time when you need to stop playing your fiddle...and counting your profits.... like when Rome is burning. And don't tell me you can't smell the smoke."

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	10/31/2007 11:03:29 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50214

Good post Slider!! So, how do we make money with these markets? Oil prices are now back up to where they were in 1980 on an inflation adjusted basis which back then resulted in one of our worst recessions due to higher inflation and higher interest rates that resulted from the high cost of energy. Today were back to 1980 peak oil prices and the markets keep going higher, interest rates are going down and "core" inflation is declining (so we're told). The big difference between 1980 and today is back then higher oil prices brought on new production which resulted in the price of oil collapsing down to $5.00 by 1986. Today the price of oil keeps going higher and the supply of oil is still declining. A very simple fact is the world cannot continue to expand at any rate of growth without abundant energy supplies, and so far higher prices have not resulted in higher supplies. So at what point will higher oil prices result in higher inflation, higher interest rates and zero/negative growth? If history has any value we should be getting pretty close to that point in time. The only explanation I can come up with regarding the stock market's recent behavior is the world is awash with UDS's and with the USD declining, foreign countries holding USD have decided that they are losing money holding on to US treasuries, so they are looking for ways to improve their returns by buying multinational common stocks that will benefit from the declining USD. Lots and lots of excess capital available to pump up the markets from places like China, Russia and the Middle Eastern oil countries and our markets are cheap compared to theirs right now. Jim

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	10/31/2007 11:58:34 PM
From: TH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50214

Slider, I'd say <good post>, but that is implying that this post is better than your last 20. It is not. They were all good. It is great to see you posting your ideas. Good Trading TH

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	11/1/2007 1:10:30 AM
From: kaydee	Respond to of 50214

An excellent post. I can't recommend twice :( kd

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	11/1/2007 9:13:59 AM
From: Wayne Campbell	Respond to of 50214

The Media is the Message - Marshall Macluan Media in US is bankrupt intellectually, morally, US is bankrupt, the media will crow, not realizing they have been the main bankrupting force of the population, while the puppeteers stash their billions in off shore accounts. The populace has been given the kool-aid to drink by the media. They live as the media tells them they should live, elect the politicians the media tells them to elect, and eat the economic dust of the cognesenti who control the mostly unwitting media enterprises. Are you surprised the talking heads at Bubblevision cannot grasp the real world, and can't catch a clue as thousands are lobbed softly to them? I'm not. I stopped watching that crap years ago. The only media I listen to is on low power radios stations late at night or very early in the morning. That's the only time slots the so called "crazies" who go on about conspiricy, secret societies, world manipulation schemes and explaining how best to protect yourself by investing in gold, diamonds, oil, unleaded gas futures, old cars, and 1970's Texaco water glasses. wc

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	11/1/2007 12:06:44 PM
From: RonMerks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50214

Make Ron Paul #44 in 2008 - damn straight! Ron

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	11/1/2007 2:20:32 PM
From: bluezuu	Respond to of 50214

Did you see the article below? National accounting not my strength, but based on this article, looks like without import price inflation adjustments, inflation would have been 2.2% and GDP 2.6%. ---------------------------------- Inflation was low because oil prices surged In GDP math, sometimes one plus one equals zero By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch Last Update: 1:56 PM ET Oct 31, 2007 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- As odd as it sounds, the government reported that inflation was at a four-decade low in the third quarter, primarily because import oil prices rose so much. If you don't understand that, welcome to the confusing world of national income accounting, where up sometimes is down, and where sometimes one plus one can equal zero. The simple explantion: Because of the way the government counts and reports the numbers, real-life inflation was understated and growth was overstated. The economy didn't really grow 3.9%, and inflation really wasn't 0.8%. The numbers aren't as good as they look. The complicated explantion: When reporting on gross domestic product, the government counts up all the economic activity in the country, including consumer spending, business and residential investment, and government spending and investment. Then it adds all the exports, and subtracts all the imports. The final total is gross domestic product. The fact that imports are subtracted is an important detail, so remember it. Of course, all this counting is done in current dollars, the kind you and I have in our pockets, the kind that lose value every day to inflation. In order to gauge how much of the increase in spending and investment during a quarter was due to real growth and how much to inflation, the government deflates the total number of dollars by its estimate for how much prices rose. In the third quarter, the government estimated that current dollar spending and investment increased at a 4.7% annual rate. After subtracting 0.8% for inflation, the real growth rate was 3.9% in the third quarter. How does the government estimate inflation? The same way it estimates growth, by looking at individual price changes for consumer spending, business and residential investment, and government spending. Then it adds the price changes for exports and subtracts the price changes for imports. It subtacts import price changes. Remember that. Sometimes the mechanical formula produces some "quirky, nonintuititive relationships," said Shelley Smith, who's in charge of figuring the price index for the government's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Most of the time, the government's formula doesn't produce any weird numbers, because the mathematical quirks all cancel each other out. But in the just concluded third quarter, it did produce quirky numbers that don't accurately reflect reality, even though they are correct from an accounting point of view. Imported crude oil prices rose from an average of about $69 a barrel in the second quarter to $75 in the third, but wholesale gasoline prices fell by about 10 cents to $2.07 a gallon. Imported prices for energy rose, but domestic prices didn't. In the government's accounting, prices of imported goods rose at a 10.3% annual pace in the quarter, but that increase was subtracted when figuring the economy-wide price index. Import prices subtracted 1.3 percentage points from inflation in the third quarter. With domestic prices rising slower than they had previously, it was enough to push inflation to four-decade low of 0.8%. The accounting is right. But it's not reality. marketwatch.com

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	11/1/2007 2:47:10 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 50214

Like Greenspan Larry Kudlow has changed his spots. I distinctly remember when gold rallied from $325 to $400 way back in 1993 Kudllow said that the Fed should "cut the gold rally off at the knees" But that was in the pre-bubble era.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	11/2/2007 6:25:59 PM
From: praha4	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50214

great post Slider ... amongst all your recent gems, I really did like this last quote in ur last post: ---- "Damnit, there comes a time when you need to stop playing your fiddle...and counting your profits. ...like when Rome is burning. And don't tell me you can't smell the smoke." Remarks: I don't recall this country being so divided since the darkest days of Vietnam. The biggest difference is much more of the country was personally invested in that war because we had the draft. And I don't mean this next comment in any way negative toward our brave soldiers serving in the mideast, but IMO the current Bush/Cheney regime have utilized the Army and Marine Corps in Iraq and Afghanistan as if the nations' military was their own personal "Blackwater-USA" mercenary force. The country should never again commit is military to a war without having the public invested in the war, and supporting the war. To do less is unfair to those in uniform, and cheapens their sacrifice. But what can we expect from the chicken-hawks in this GOP party who dodged service in Vietnam, but can't wait to send others' kids off to fight and die in this war. Going back to what Slider says on the current state of affairs, yes, it is a mess in Washington and on Wall Street. We have ZERO adult supervision in Washington in the halls of Congress, and in the White House. Watching Bush come on TV day after day crying about the Democratic Congress is getting old and frankly seems like the angry 6 year old who is throwing a tantrum cuz he's not getting treated like the little King from Crawford he was used to when Denny Hastert and the other butt licking Senator from Tennessee were GOP majority leaders 2001-06. To listen to Bush suddenly find religion on federal govt spending is unbelievably ridiculous. This is what you see when the spoiled Yale brat frat boy President lost all his handlers like Karl Rove, there is nobody left to control him and give him guidance except the shady Dick Cheney. yes, I've already sent a check for $500 to Ron Paul, the ONLY candidate with any sanity amongst either party. good luck to all, we will need it

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	11/2/2007 7:00:30 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 50214

love that "That's like asking Pablo Escobar what he was going to do about the Cocaine problem." hat's off -- great post -- couldn't agree more. We've got to do something NOW.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6826)	11/2/2007 7:29:26 PM
From: Jamey	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50214

No body can fix America anymore. We are no longer one nation, indivisible and we will never be that way again. "I Pledge Allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands, one Nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all." Jim G. We have talked about assimilation until we are blue in the face but we are not assimilated. We are many cultures, two languages, and very few has the spirit or culture of an American. Didn't anyone notice it? Somebody turn out the light...It is every one for himself. Let the Jews have the media, the Muslims have the religion and the Mexicans have the infrastructure. We can have the shit hole. I'm glad my children are grown but feel for my Grandkids. They have to swim in this sink hole. Our Constitution has been trashed and made of non effect. It's too late to reverse Globalism and the despotism of the United States of America. Let the few who scream about freedom continue to scream. No one is listening. As for me, I'm takimg care of what's mine. Let the crazies run the Ship of State all they want. Jim