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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: skinowski who wrote (88279)10/31/2007 11:04:53 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Think "risk premium". When markets misprice risk, there is bound to be trouble. In the dotcom days, the highly risky proposition of future tech earnings growth was not priced into the market -- and when the risk got priced in the market for risky securities crashed -- in many cases by over 90%. The same has been true of risky debt obligations -- risk has not been priced in to them and they are getting hit in much the same fashion. Adding liquidity to the market is like giving a man an additive pain killer when his health problem is really that he has badly broken bones - it feels good, solves nothing and creates a new and very dangerous side-effect in the form of drug dependence. But honestly, at this point, all the Fed can do is hand out pain killers. There is no Fed solution -- only things to temporarily mask the underlying issue -- and the underlying issue is that a huge swath of securities are being completely wiped out because there is no market for them at today's prices and many are worthless while many, many more are simply not priced to account for default risk. This is all econ 101.

The far, far far, bigger issue for us to grapple with is the impact of all of this on the dollar -- and the key to that is to understand that the dollar is driven down by a slowing economy, which means that a slowing economy is going to send inflation skyward. That is what many people cannot even imagine -- the reverse of what would happen in a closed economy. What the Fed is doing is trying to keep the dollar from collapsing by goosing the economy. The risks of inflation from goosing the economy are deemd to be less bad than the risks of inflation from sitting back and watching the economy slip into recession -- either way, you are going to get inflation. What the deflationary pundits don't understand is that there is NO PLAUSIBLE CASE FOR DEFLATION.