Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (92956)	11/1/2007 5:23:25 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206316

MDA EarthSat 06-07 Winter Outlook Colder than Last Year and Close to 30Y Normal Thursday November 1, 10:40 am ET ROCKVILLE, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MDA EarthSat Energy Weather (part of MDA Federal in Rockville, MD) is forecasting the Dec-Jan-Feb period to average 4% colder than last year and 1% warmer than the 30-year normal (1971-2000). On that track, this would be the coldest winter since 03-04. Regionally, the winter period is forecast to be warmer than normal across the Southern tier, from Texas to the Southeast. Seasonal to below normal temperatures are seen across the Northern tier, including the Pacific Northwest, Chicago, and the Northeast. The Western states are forecast to average closer to normal levels as well with the coolest (and wettest) chances for the Pacific Northwest. The latest official forecast is derived via MDA EarthSat’s unique consensus-based forecasting technique, which has performed well the last two seasons (within 2% last summer and 1% last winter). Matt Rogers, Deputy Director of Weather for MDA EarthSat, notes that this year continues to be the mirror-opposite of last year: “Instead of a cool Autumn and a very warm start to the winter, this year looks to unfold in reverse with a currently very warm fall translating into a colder than normal heating season start. Parts of the Midwest and East could even see snow as early as next week.” The current consensus outlook favors a colder December, warmer January, and a mixed February outcome. Much will depend on the La Niña status too, which is forecast by MDA EarthSat to remain in the weak to moderate range this winter. MDA EarthSat Energy Weather provides consulting support for over 300 companies active in risk management for the energy sector. Forecast percentages based on national natural gas weighted heating degree days. For more information, please contact Christopher.Hyde@mdafederal.com. Contact: MDA Federal Chris Hyde Manager, Product Sales 240-833-8322 christopher.hyde@mdafederal.com *********************************************************** Given how warm these last 2 winters have been, its not saying all that much to say that this might be the coldest winter since '03-'04. But we natty bulls will take all that we can get! It feels like I'm with Alice in Wonderland, looking at natty futures rally on the very day that natty storage makes an all-time high, on a higher-than-expected fill, with prospects for another higher than normal fill for the upcoming week. I am keeping my UNG short out there even as I see it go into more and more of a losing position. Maybe the markets will wake up to reality next Thursday?

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (92956)	11/2/2007 4:16:36 PM
From: Dennis Roth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206316

DJ UPDATE: US GAS: Futures End 2.5% Lower On Weather, Storage futuresource.quote.com Bloomberg: Nymex Natural Gas Falls on Outlook Winter Supplies Are Ample bloomberg.com --- Reuters: U.S. spot natural gas prices fell at every price point Friday, most for the second day in a row, pressured by fairly mild weather expected in much of the nation and the typical weekend discount amid lessened industrial demand from shuttered schools and businesses. In addition, traders said weaker gas futures, as record-high winter storage outweighed concerns about colder weather next week, added more weight to the downside. www1.investorvillage.com Physical Natural Gas Prices for next day delivery - Down everywhere intelligencepress.com --- The next ten days still forecast as cool in the East, warm in the West. wxmaps.org cpc.ncep.noaa.gov --- Bentek bentekenergy.com GULF PRODUCTION MONITOR: November 2, 2007 There was a 3.3% (362,000 Dth/d) upward revision in yesterday's I2 cycle, bringing total Gulf production to 11.55 Bcf/d on Nov. 1. However, production is down 2% today to 11.3 Bcf/d, including some large declines in the Texas onshore area. Independence Hub has jumped to 0.8 Bcf/d, up 142,000 Dth/d in only two days. Despite being up significantly in yesterday's evening cycle, Texas onshore production was revised higher in the I2 to 2.3 Bcf/d, but is down 7% today to 2.1 Bcf/d, mainly because of a 23% drop on Tennessee. TEXAS ENERGY BULLETIN: November 2, 2007 ERCOT Peak Load dropped to 43 GW and is expected to come off to 39/38 GW for Saturday/Sunday. Henry Hub was down 1.5 cnts to $7.11 while Ship Channel was down 3 cnts to $7.08. Henry is now 3 cnts over Ship Channel. Flows moving east from the Ship Channel area are down by 106,000 MMbtu. Waha was off 1.4 cnts to $6.74, brining the Waha to 34 cnts under Ship Channel. Flows moving east to the Ship Channel area are off by 62,000 MMbtu. The Socal to Waha differential dropped 4 cnts to 34 cnts. The Socal price was $6.85. Flows moving west from El Paso to California are off by 163,000 MMbtu. Panhandle dropped 10.8 cnts to $6.41. Implied heat rates dropped to the 8 range.