Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lokness who wrote (70822)	11/2/2007 12:31:45 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Gold is vulnerable due to huge spec positions, I agree, it will have a sharp correction at some point. 800 seems to be a good number. If not, then I guess we are going higher to test 880 -g- Personally, I think it could be predicting the last washout phase of dollar devaluation, and gold is a good LT hold regardless of short term COT swings. It will get into 4 digits eventually, maybe 5. Maybe, China is quietly exchanging their worthess dollar reserves for gold, who knows. Physical market is more important. The dollar index could drop to 60, or to 40, and quickly. The rest depends on how the Fed deals with blowing up debt. If they start monetarizing it hand over fist, and so far they stopped doing that, it's a hyperinflation scenario. If they let it blow up, then we'll have to get through very hard times of higher LT rates, inflation in essentials (food and energy) and deflation in assets and debt. That's hyperstagflation. So far long-term rates are not moving up to discount high currency risk.