Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (88382)	11/3/2007 6:49:55 AM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

>and I am not talking mainly about the surge in Chinese billionaires so much as I am talking about people with the right mix of tech and management skills.> When I graduated with an engineering degree in India about 20 years ago, there were about 5000 engineering/professional positions available all over India for the whole pool of engineering graduates (my guess is that about 50,000 engineers graduated per year in those days). So 45,000 engineers a year were migrating out of India or out of their professions in search of opportunities. Today, India graduates about 500,000 engineering graduates a year. The software industry absorbs about 25 percent of them a year (125,000). The Business Process Industry (BPO) absorbs about 50 percent of that every year (250,000). And 10 percent are still migrating out of India (50,000). The remaining are absorbed by the Indian industry. All these are estimates of course. For the last 20 years, US industry was gaining about 45,000 engineers of Indian origins a year. This has resulted in a very high concentration of people of Indian origin in silicon valley, IT departments, and engineering departments of universities. 20 years ago, India was capital constrained today it is labor constrained in critical areas. So the 5000 engineers who got the only available opportunities 20 years ago, are now the few who have 10-20 years of solid experience in running operations in Indian conditions. They are in huge demand as there are 1000 companies opening offices/divisions/ventures every year, and each one wants 1 or more C level executive. Meanwhile Indian industries have grown by leaps and bounds in the last 10 years. 250 million phone lines have been added in last 7 years, almost equal to all phone lines added within last 100 years in the US. Now the situation is interesting. There is only a pool of 40-50,000 almost C level executives in India. And there is probably a much larger pool of 100,000-150,000 almost C level executives of Indian origin in the United States. So the reverse migration has started. Mid managers who could not make it to the top in the US are migrating to India at C level or almost C level positions, at salaries in US dollars that are higher than what they were making in the US. There is a window of opportunity of about 5-10 years when this will be worthwhile. After that there will be steady supply of mid managers in India who will rise up the ranks and slow or reverse the excessive growth in salaries. Then India will have an excess of managers and Indian managers will migrate to the top of multinational corporations in all parts of the world. -Arun