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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe S Pack who wrote (88402)	11/3/2007 2:13:17 PM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

So 45,000 engineers a year were migrating out of India or out of their professions in search of opportunities. >1) It is an unsubstantiated claim. Is there a link?> No. Just educated guesses. There were about 500,000-750,000 graduates per year in India around 1990. To become an engineer in India those days you had to be in the top 5-10 percentile. Therefore the 50,000 estimate. Actually it may be even lower in the late 1980s. When I arrived in the US, the graduate schools in Engineering already had a significant percentage of Indians. A small engineering school of 3000 had about 50 grad engineering students of Indian origin per year. Larger universities had about 200 each. That accounted for about 5,000-10,000 in 100 grad engineering departments. Many others migrated to gulf countries, UK, and Singapore for jobs. Then the flood of H1Bs started in the 1990s. The number of Indian H1Bs was probably 3,000/year in 1991. Grew to about 15,000 a year in 1995 and peaked at about 45,000 a year around the year 2000. There were others who moved to US on Visa or Green Card through family preferences. >2) Moving out of their profession does not mean moving out of their country. So it is not clear what that apples versus oranges conclusion means.> The point is that, over the last 20 years: There is 1 order of magnitude increase in the per year numbers of engineering graduates in India in 20 years. There is only about 50-100 percent increase in those migrating out of India every year. There is two orders of magnitude of jobs available to engineering graduates in India every year. So the number of experienced engineers/managers being generated in India in 10 years will be an order to two order of magnitude higher than those being generated today. The number of 35-45 year old experienced engineers/managers of indian origin working in professional capacity outside India is probably 300-500 percent of those available in India. So the direction of migration is towards India, where the returning Indians and the youngsters will combine to spawn technology companies and products. This will force many American University graduates and managers to look for jobs in India as an alternative to the silicon valley. -Arun