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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (24768)	11/4/2007 10:24:00 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217884

Options for the U.S. 1. Reevaluate the utility of the sanctions option While sanctions in general will no doubt have some impact on the Iranian economy particularly when it comes to manufactured products, it is unlikely that such sanctions would bring a change of international behavior, not the least a regime change. With growing tightness in the global energy markets Iran’s oil and gas will be ever more valuable and it is likely to be able to subvert the sanctions regime and push its products to the market. Even if Iran exports less oil and gas due to the sanctions the economic damage will be offset by higher revenue caused by higher crude prices. When it comes to refined petroleum products, this paper concludes that the window of opportunity to cause economic pain is closing rapidly. Policymakers who support economic sanctions should realize that this option is waning. Every year that passes makes Iran more resilient to sanctions. In light of Iran’s growing immunity to sanctions the U.S. should reassess the viability and effectiveness of this mechanism. If, after all, a decision is taken to pursue this option, the timeline for implementation should be shortened. 2. Slow down Iran’s energy transformation Through smart and consistent efforts the U.S. and its allies can slow down the process of Iran’s transformation to natural gas and hence buy more time for sanctions to work. There are several bottlenecks in the Iranian plan. Implementation of the plan would largely depend on supplying at least 1.5 million gas tanks per year. CNG tanks are made from steel and composite materials and require a specialized production process. The U.S. can slow down the process by conducting clandestine sabotage operations against critical nodes in Iran’s natural gas infrastructure. Sabotage attacks against factories producing CNG tanks and conversion workshops combined with punitive measures against European companies like TUV Austria and the Calgary based AFS which facilitate Iran’s energy plan by supplying critical parts and providing essential services could have a cumulative impact on the program’s implementation. Such an approach, however, is not going to stop the program; at best it could cause delays. 3. Devise a reciprocal economic warfare strategy The U.S. must begin to answer Iran's economic warfare strategy with one of its own. More than five years since the onset of the global war on terrorism the U.S. still has no comprehensive economic warfare strategy to deal with oil rich radical countries. An effective economic warfare strategy has more to it than sanctions. It includes the use of innovative domestic and international energy policy, financial tools, trade levers, and advanced technology. Applied in unison, all of these advance the strategic goal of breaking the economic backbone of rogue countries. One tenet of this strategy should be the reduction of America’s dependence on foreign oil and its susceptibility to supply disruptions. While Iran is taking meaningful steps to reduce its strategic vulnerability, the U.S. is doing the exact opposite when it comes to its energy security. The U.S. imports more than 60 percent of its oil and a growing portion of its imports come from countries which are opposed to the U.S. and its policies. By taking steps to minimize the risk of oil supply disruptions, the U.S. would be freer to implement its foreign policy goals, including the use of punitive measures against Iran, without suffering adverse impact on its economy. iags.org This shows why a country needs navy and why others don't.