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Strategies & Market Trends : Can you beat 50% per month? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (12316)	11/5/2007 12:34:46 AM
From: Gush	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19256

Cool.. But I highly recommend making those expiration dates sometime next year, just so that you have some time to get through the ongoing manipulation that is holding up this market. Peace.

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (12316)	11/10/2007 3:47:39 PM
From: ChanceIs	Respond to of 19256

>>>If it doesn't happen this week, I'll add more puts as I can.<<< This market is super tricky right now. I can see a technical rally - "as in don't get on the short bus." I can see another round of carpet bombing from Helicopter Ben, which could induce a bounce. I think the fundamentals will continue to deteriorate. A rosy speculative scenario: 1) we bounce upwards into Thanksgiving, and 2) Black Friday is a disaster (I would put 70% odds on this - especially as $3.50 gasoline becomes established). So. take dark side profits here and reload on travel Wednesday in a preemptive fashion?? All speculation aside, I think that the smart play is being long the puts. One pays more for time premium today, but there is value in the risk reduction aspect. My call. Buy fairly far ITM Junish puts. Far ITM means less time premium - but more cash tied up. The ultimate direction will be decided by June - don't buy them for longer than is necessary.