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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: basho who wrote (88497)	11/5/2007 10:04:44 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

'GST, you seem nearly as determined to push your take on these matters as Mish is his. No mean achievement.' Big difference is one has been completely wrong for several years and the other posts on SI to share and learn like all of us here, not for financial gain.. Can anyone deny we are in a period like no other and quite different from the disinflationary period that lasted from roughly 1980-2003? Comparisons to Japan 1990 or US 1929? Unlikely but more like US 1974 stagflation mixed in with some US 1990 credit/RE meltdown in an unprecedented global boom where US consumerism is bringing folks into the middle class in record numbers and as Ork pointed out in other posts today we have serious shortages in many natural resources required for a functioning society.. We are the debtor nation for the ages in all respects today. We must continue to grow at any cost. GWB for all his blunders has advisors who pushed the pro growth agenda including immigration, tax cuts, deficit spending, wars.. If all this was to reverse combined with a strong dollar policy and much higher rates as we fight the dreaded housing/credit bust monsters the next year all hell would break lose and Mish might start looking good again.. We have reached the tipping point politically on supply side economic and the validity of the Laffer Curve..this in and of itself will reverse the little disinflationary pressure still remaining from policies instituted under Reagan.. Interesting times to say the least. Can't get this good stuff on CNBC or FOX<g>

To: basho who wrote (88497)	11/6/2007 10:42:33 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Thank you -- good post. Your post underlines some of the important reasons underlying price movements in Japan -- although it might have been helpful to discuss the role Japan's massive current account surplus and its high savings rate. Nontheless, it was great to see a coherent discussion of some aspect of money supply in Japan and its relationship to deflation. Debating the complex nature of price movements and the extremely important issue of the future of the dollar and its implications -- these are areas where people can have fruitful and intelligent differences. I only complain when the conversation becomes idiotic instead of intelligent, and in my view you cannot have an intelligent conversation about inflation/deflation while refusing to accept that it has anything to do with persistent price movements. Once you acknowledge that inflation/deflation is about prices then we can examine the causes in greater detail. Is money supply important? We all know it is -- that has never been the issue. The issue is what holds the key to the future of prices - to the future of the dollar - and it is simplistic in the extreme to think that US money supply is all we need to look at. To define inflation as US money supply, end of story, is just plain stupid in my view.