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To: jim_p who wrote (6913)	11/6/2007 10:51:02 AM
From: ldo79	Respond to of 50726

Foreclosure wave sweeps America By Steve Schifferes BBC economics reporter, Cleveland, Ohio A wave of foreclosures and evictions is about to sweep the United States in the wake of the sub-prime mortgage lending crisis. This could destabilise the US housing market and may also lead to further turmoil in financial institutions, who collectively own $1 trillion (£480.6bn) worth of sub-prime debt. Story from BBC NEWS: news.bbc.co.uk

To: jim_p who wrote (6913)	11/6/2007 11:24:04 AM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 50726

From a poster over on Zeev's I Hub: And now for the mind-addling October Employment Report – We told you that the report would be inline or better because that’s how the US government beancounters have been playing the game. This report is so outrageous many pundits are shredding it. This is similar to CPI awakening. For years most people ignored CPI fraud; but it became so blatant that only the truly ignorant, shills and permabulls believe it…Barron’s Alan Abelson disparages the October Employment Report and GDP Price Deflator, and calls government economic statisticians ‘fudgers’. The BLS added 103,000 Net Business Birth/Death Model jobs in October. We mentioned that October has a large B/D Model job add and because the model is influenced by the BLS’ seasonal adjustment model, this implies a large seasonal jobs add to the CES data. And that’s what transpired. The NY Times: Some economists saw distortions in the data. With seasonal adjustment factors removed, nearly half of the gain in private jobs came from an estimate that the Labor Department makes each month about how many jobs were added by new businesses, known as the "birth and death" model. The Labor Department did not actually find evidence of these jobs; it assumed they were created based on historical patterns. nytimes.com The NY Times’ Floyd Norris: Of those 103,000 jobs, 14,000 were in the construction industry, and 25,000 were in finance. Does anyone believe that all those new companies are being created in those industries now?...Over the last 12 months, the government’s current numbers indicate that the private sector added an average of 115,000 jobs a month. But 80 percent of those jobs came from the statistical adjustments. norris.blogs.nytimes.com We must pause and wipe a tear. For years we bemoaned the hokey CPI and jobs data created by federal agencies and their hokey methodologies. Now, even the NY Times acknowledges the fraud. Merrill’s David Rosenberg (who does very good work): According to TrimTabs Employment Analysis, the U.S. economy suffered its first job loss in four years, shedding 35,000 jobs in October. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the economy gained a healthy 166,000 new jobs. We believe the huge difference between the two job growth measurements is due to the fact that the BLS survey methodology is incapable of capturing major inflection points in U.S. economic growth. The BLS survey methodology yields flawed results for three reasons: 1) large seasonal adjustments typically mask subtle changes in the employment environment; 2) only 40% to 60% of the BLS establishment survey is complete by the initial release and is subject to large revisions in subsequent months; 3) the BLS applies a "birth/death" adjustment to their employment survey results which is nothing more than an educated guess. It is our opinion that the BLS, by publishing heavily flawed data, is doing more damage to the U.S. economy than good…

To: jim_p who wrote (6913)	11/6/2007 11:55:39 AM
From: gladman	Respond to of 50726

>>Short the rallies and prosper!!!<< Logical!

To: jim_p who wrote (6913)	11/6/2007 11:36:33 PM
From: bluezuu	Respond to of 50726

At least with tech bubble we had a wonderful fiber build out that drastically reduced costs. That build out is still benefitting us today. With the real estate bubble, all we got was a bunch of granite countertops.

To: jim_p who wrote (6913)	11/7/2007 12:09:26 AM
From: sammy™ -_-	Respond to of 50726

Off to Sevilla, Spain Your points are well taken jim, and they are very timely and well described. Its an amazing time. As what will happen to the market is a different matter, this I have observed, fundamentals are difficult as predictive tools. Earlier the explanations had a tendency to come after the events, as of now they come in advance, and I do agree the credit situation interesting and scary. From mid November I see a shot negative trend, and its possible the market will use that, to adjust for the factors you described. Still shorting the market is difficult, tracking my sentiments & aspirin count theory, short positions could make sense here Put/Call Ratio Volatility Indices NASDAQ Daily Sentiment Index Rydex Nova/Ursa Sentiment Indicator Option Buyers Sentiment Gauge Put/Call Ratio v.s. Volatility Investors Intelligence Survey Commitments of Traders University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index Total Market Volume Arms Index/TRIN Market Participation Index Advance/Decline Ratio Oscillator Eliades New TRIN Relative Upside/Downside Volume Oscillator NASDAQ Composite Volume Total Market Momentum Total Market Rate-of-Change KST Indicator Market liquidity Even so I just think the fear factor is too big and out in the open, which support the bullish case. So do the put/call, meaning many are insured. Again I will step aside for some time in January/March, but if we bounce back here, as a trader, it could be wise to look for a short. Predicting the market is difficult, 2003 I was saying the market would trend higher for years. Some recent sentiment indicators are worse then in 2003