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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sr K who wrote (74540)	11/10/2007 6:48:27 PM
From: Dinesh	Respond to of 77400

Sr K Thanks for slipping in that "not" - so perceptive of you. Also, thanks for adding clarity on SPY. The rest depends on data you get. Yet, being 1 sigma around the mean is 68%, and Elroy is talking about only the left tail -- of only the downside probability, so the hurdle is greater. I agree 3 years is somewhat suspect. Yet, even if you took the long term mean to be 10%, it will require a std dev of well over 20% to meet his objective. (My hunch is that the LT std dev is 17%.) Regards Dinesh

To: Sr K who wrote (74540)	11/10/2007 8:56:57 PM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

SPY is the ETF for the S&P 500 at 1/10 the value. It is sometimes called the SPDR for Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts, but after this first one, there are now SPDRs for other segments such as Mid-Cap stocks. SPY is the one for the S&P 500. It is often the most actively traded security. On 11/9 it traded 277,731,444 "receipts" on the American Stock Exchange, and was 2nd in volume, topped only by QQQQ. But I believe you know that. You believe I knew what the SPY was, but pretended not to know? What do you mean? Why would I do that? If I were you, I would have just written the S&P instead of SPY. We call the S&P the S&P where I work. We don't discuss this SPY, but now I understand what he meant.... And I guess his point is that since the S&P is unlikey to decline by 10% in a year, then the same can be said about CSCO stock. That, obviously, is wrong, but I guess that's his point. Actually, who knows?