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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy who wrote (74559)	11/11/2007 4:31:23 PM
From: Sr K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Open comments: There is currency risk, inflation risk, macro-econ risk, and specific company risk. To say "with the investment time horizon set to long term, the downside risk for S&P500 is - close to nil!" is foolish or naïve. Moreover, if the index fluctuates during a year from -20% to +20% and ends at +10%, that is not a risk of 10%. And, there is survivor-bias in referring to long-term historical returns of the S&P 500. Long-term returns are "reward" and not a measure of the risk exposure or risk taken. Referring to past forward-looking EPS or a FL P/E for CSCO, you can't properly do that by looking at the following 4 quarters actual EPS for any point in time. You would have to look at market consensus or market average expectations at that point in time. If Cisco beat expectations, you can't in retrospect use those higher actual EPS to calculate now what the FL P/E was.