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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (248140)	11/12/2007 12:07:53 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

>>Does this mean that you'll stop ridiculing me for saying that the Sunni insurgency is over? Nope. It is way too early to say this. Don't you remember all the "tipping points" you've announced in the past? This may or may not be the "real" tipping point, but honestly, I doubt it. Unless the taste of civil war that both Sunnis and Shia have gotten over the past couple of years was indeed enough to frighten them into real negotiations. It's possible. I'm not prescient enough to say whether it's probable or not. Sam, saying the Sunni insurgency is over is not equivalent to saying that universal peace has come to Iraq and should not be construed as such. Iran may make its move in the south via JAM; civil war may yet break out; or there could be a long uncertain period of negotiations & skirmishes. Whatever the situation WILL be, to say that the "Sunni insurgency" as it operated from late 2003 on, as a Sunni-Baathis-AQI alliance, is over, is merely a statement of fact, as far as I can see from the reports coming out of Iraq. I think you have a history of over-construing any positive thing I said about Iraq into some kind of announced grand "tipping point" that will fix everything. I never said that; nor did I say it here.