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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: calgal who wrote (24076)	11/11/2007 10:23:58 PM
From: calgal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

The Republicans Have a Chance If they clear four hurdles. by Fred Barnes 11/12/2007, Volume 013, Issue 09 Increase Font Size \| Printer-Friendly \| Email a Friend \| Respond to this article Republicans, though still traumatized by their resounding defeat in the 2006 election, are growing convinced they can win the White House again in 2008. They believe things are beginning to turn their way. The war in Iraq is being won. The Democratic Congress is so unpopular that even House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she disapproves of it. The economy, despite the subprime mortgage problem, is resilient. And several issues are emerging in their favor--taxes, national security, and illegal immigrants. Best of all, Hillary Clinton is the likeliest Democratic presidential nominee. She has one quality Republicans appreciate: She unites Republicans everywhere in furious opposition as no other Democrat does. John Edwards, correct for once, told Clinton in last week's Democratic presidential debate that Republicans "keep bringing you up" not because she's a strong candidate but because "they may actually want to run against you." That's exactly what Republicans want. They think she's highly beatable. Having Clinton as their foe, however, won't be sufficient for Republicans to hold the presidency in 2008. There are (at least) four political problems they must deal with successfully to win--problems that aren't on the front burner except at Republican headquarters in Washington. Here are the four: Hispanics. President Bush won 40 percent of the growing Hispanic vote in 2004, but Republican candidates got roughly 30 percent in the 2006 midterm election. And practically everything Republicans have done since then has tended to alienate Hispanics. Defeat of the immigration reform bill earlier this year, with its pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the United States, troubled many Hispanics. While Republicans weren't solely responsible for killing the bill, they claimed the credit. This fall, Republicans have stressed the less divisive issues of denying driver's licenses and in-state college tuition to illegals. A massive repair job is needed if Republicans hope to regain support among Hispanics. This is critical. Bush defeated John Kerry by 2.4 percentage points in 2004. If Bush's Hispanic backing had been cut in half, he might have lost. And that's what Republicans are threatened with in 2008--getting half of Bush's vote. Ohio. Richard Nixon was famous for saying Ohio is the key to winning the White House. No Republican president has ever been elected without winning Ohio. Republicans lost the governorship, a Senate seat, and a House seat in 2006, and three Republican House members are retiring in 2008. The Republicans have slightly less than a 50 percent chance in Ohio next year. The good news is that Ohio Republicans are prepared to fight. "The negativity against Republicans isn't anything like it was in 2006," Ohio Republican congressman Pat Tiberi says. Unpopular governor Bob Taft III is gone, as is the corruption issue. Ohio Republicans have a solid voter turnout infrastructure that saved House members Steve Chabot and Deborah Pryce last year. They'll need it in 2008. Ohio Republicans relish the idea of running against Hillary Clinton. But what if she chose Ted Strickland, Ohio's likable Democratic governor, as her running mate? He's a bit of a lightweight, but he's also begun rebuilding the Democratic party in the state. "I don't know what [Strickland] brings you except Ohio," says Tiberi. Ohio is enough. weeklystandard.com

To: calgal who wrote (24076)	11/11/2007 10:27:15 PM
From: calgal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

A Winning Idea An opportunity for both parties at the intersection of education and faith. by Michael Tobman 11/08/2007 12:00:00 AM Increase Font Size \| Printer-Friendly \| Email a Friend \| Respond to this article PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES, who say everything in just the perfect way and actually do nothing, know in their bones how vacant their words are and cling to the one poll-tested and focus-group ratified act that cannot be reasonably challenged: they profess faith. This really only works for Republicans. Democrats do it, but they just don't do it as well, and, as we've repeatedly seen, they cannot make it work on the national stage. Republicans do faith in national politics better than Democrats because Republican politics allow for talk of faith to be matched up with actual policy, while Democrats, because of Democratic politics, can really only talk--a big problem when voters crave and recognize authenticity. Take, for example, help for families that pay tuition for K-12 private and religious schools. Such plans, though despised and challenged by the leadership of public school teachers' unions, are constitutional when properly drafted. A Republican presidential candidate could propose such a plan and be celebrated for supporting faith coupled with common sense policy. Rudy Giuliani has. A Democratic presidential candidate, no matter how insistently devout, would have a hard time embracing such a plan when nearly one-in-ten delegates to the Democratic National Convention is either a public school teacher or married to one--a statistic used to bludgeon candidates into a cooperative stupor. Hillary Clinton, recently endorsed by the American Federation of Teachers, will probably not be talking about helping tuition paying parents any time soon. Education reform advocates still hope that Barack Obama, who has come close to offending the National Education Association with talk of accountability and reform, will take a leap of faith and shift the Democratic discussion. And of course race matters. In supporting deductions or credits for families that spend on K-12 education, there is an opportunity for the Republican party to attract greater support from socially conservative African-American, West-Indian, and Hispanic families that make heavy use of Catholic and Christian schools in must-win states. Alternatively, the Democratic party can, through this issue, stop running top-down presidential campaigns that insist on temporary alliances and instead build a sturdy coalition that wins elections on ideas. For the Democrats it may mean angering the heads of public school teachers' unions, but it would attract key constituencies in important states and show editorial boards that winning ideas of national importance are more important than tired relationships. Further, supporting education policies that benefit families who send their children to Yeshivas would provide candidates with something worthwhile and productive to speak about in committed Jewish communities other than the usual and predictable comments on Israel and the Middle East. In education and faith we have an issue through which Republicans can solidify and expand their successful national vote-getting strategy or through which Democrats can make a bold and sincere move towards capturing constituencies that have eluded their often cultish message machine. Michael Tobman, a former senior aide to Senator Charles Schumer of New York, is a lobbyist and communications consultant who lives in Brooklyn, New York. weeklystandard.com