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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (248208)	11/12/2007 12:41:50 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

LOL. Plenty is a relative term. In the sense that we still have approx. half the oil we know about,and, except for the poles and deep oceans, & with some hope in Africa, we know most of the planet, we have plenty. What we lack is the ability to get it out of the ground in a timely manner. When fields are approx 50% gone, the rate of extraction falls off(a field's depletion is the amount it falls off each year).Physics. Hard to overcome. Nasty thing, physics. Discovered by Shell geologist M. King Hubbard, called Hubbert's Curve, Hubbert's Peak. In '56, he predicted '70 for US, '95 for world. In '70, the US industry laughed at him. Said "look, we have never pumped this much; yer wrong." In '71, MKH said "whoops, you didn't produce as much this year, did you?" It is felt that the oil shocks, tanker wars, and recessions in the 80's killed demand enuf that this would be pushed back 10 years, to ought five. Right now, looks like world peak was 5/05,and we are down about 1.5 MPD from that level.With absolutely rotten timing, I started my PO thread 5/05. I'm sorry. Meant to give folks a few years to get ready. Asi es la vida. But, I digress. Curve for the US....bump in '78 is Prudhoe (discovered '68) coming on line. Largest field ever discovered in NA. Despite that,we could not exceed our peak production in'70, which helped set up the first oil crisis, cuz we could no longer meet our domestic needs. Tech (H2O, CO2, Nat gas, steam, detergent injections, horizontal plumbing) has enabled us to pump faster and push the fields harder. This is how the producers have been able to meet demand in the past. Downside is that, the harder you push them, the faster they collapse. The 4 largest fields...Ghawar, 8% depletion; Cantarell, Mexico, maybe 25% this year; Bergan, Kuwait 14%; Daqing, China, peaked '03. Takes similar elephant fields lo replace them. We haven't found any. Largest field in the last 30 years was Kashagan, (aka Cashisgone),disc. '00 in Borat country; was supposed to come on-line in '04,...'05...'06...'07; now at end of '10. That assumes no wars. What I have said is the just to keep running in place. Now factor in the increasing demand from China, India, and the internal demands of the producers, to wit, Russia and SA. The treadmill just sped up to faster than we can run. "He says more offshore drilling and nuke power solves our problems and keeps dollars here and not overseas." Next post, Hirsch rept; try not to bore you all at once. No way to do this in a few words.

To: michael97123 who wrote (248208)	11/12/2007 1:02:11 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

P3..today on the Oil Drum theoildrum.com No one has mentioned this before so I will post it just as a piece of information. US crude oil production fell 144,000 barrels per day from July to August and fell below 5 million barrels per day for the first time since well before the peak in 1970 when unaffected by a hurricane. Katrina and Rita brought US production below 5 million bp/d for four consecutive months in 2005, reaching a low of 4,204,000 bp/d in September of that year. But there have been no hurricanes to hit the US oil producing area of the GOM since. Production rose to a post Katrina high of 5,240,000 in May of this year but has dropped every month since then. US production for August 2007 was 4,976,000 bp/d. eia.doe.gov Ron Patterson Darwinian on November 12, 2007 - 10:21am ==== The independent station in Graettinger, Iowa is out of 87 octane, 89 octane, and diesel. The nearest fuel source for residents would be Estherville or Emmetsburg, both twelve miles away. The independent station in Ruthven, Iowa is out of 87 octane and diesel but had 950 gallons of 89 octane remaining as of Sunday afternoon. The nearest fuel source for residents would be Spencer, fourteen miles away. Regional and national chain stations in Spencer are operating all pumps. I did not inquire regarding fuel levels. Not in Iowa, but as an interesting aside, I have an aunt in Verona, North Dakota, population 200. She says they can get neither diesel nor heating oil and that gasoline has gone to $3.35/gallon at the local independent station. She says but I cannot confirm that the reason gasoline prices and supplies are spotty is due to the lack of diesel with which to delivery the gasoline. They've gone to heating oil rationing, where customers report what their fuel levels are and then (in theory) the co-op delivers what is available to those most in need. SacredCowTipper on November 12, 2007 - 10:32am Good night. Cassandra Dee Rat