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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (7046)	11/12/2007 8:19:33 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50279

Not sure this will answer your question, but oil and gold are only getting sold off today because of redemptions in the hedge funds. For every dollar redeemed 7-10 dollars of investments will need to be sold to repay the carry trade leverage. Oil will most likely fall in price once the markets price in recession, but we will need to see increased supplies for any sustained decline in oil prices. So far it hasn't happened and oil has gone from $40 to $95 with no supply response. Gold is in an uptrend and I would stick with it as long as the trend is up. Short term the carry trade unwinding will be negative for gold, but that will most likely be over for now by the end of this week. Past the carry trade issue gold will trend up as long as inflation is increasing and or the USD is falling. Longer term if we end up with deflation resulting from the housing bubble that will be negative for gold. Jim