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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (71184)	11/13/2007 1:49:07 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 116555

"What's more, the Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator (KRWI) is flashing yellow. Both components -- the spread between the federal funds rate and the 10-year Treasury note yield, and the inflation-adjusted monetary base (currency plus bank reserves) - -have turned negative, a precursor to every recession since 1970. (Kasriel uses the year-over-year change in the monetary base's quarterly average and the four-quarter moving average for the spread.) The KRWI has been negative for three consecutive quarters. The Fed may be forced to choose in the not-too-distant future between the currency and the economy-at-large. " bloomberg.com