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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Hawkmoon who wrote (8406)11/13/2007 4:25:09 PM
From: Augustus Gloop  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 33421
 
Good thing he has cash because we aren't done yet.



To: Hawkmoon who wrote (8406)11/20/2007 5:13:58 PM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 
U.S. Two-Year Interest-Rate Swap Spread Reaches 18-Year High

By Liz Capo McCormick

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The price to exchange fixed for floating interest-rate payments for two years surged to the highest in at least 18 years as bank borrowing costs rose and speculation increased that credit-market losses will widen.

The spread between the rates on a two-year interest-rate swap, used to hedge against and speculate on interest-rate swings, and Treasury note yields, widened to as much as 101.75 basis points, the largest gap since at least November 1988, when Bloomberg began compiling the data. The difference was 97.35 basis points at 3:27 p.m. in New York, compared with 96.75 basis points yesterday. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

``The widening of swap spreads is a function of tight lending and a de-leveraging in the financial system and the high cost of money,'' said William O'Donnell, head of U.S. government bond strategy at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The last two times we saw these meteor-like spikes in swap spreads in the U.S., they were followed by a recession. Liquidity is absolutely horrible.''

The World Bank and International Business Machines Corp. are credited with entering into the first widely recognized swap in 1981, according to the International Swaps and Derivative Association's Web site. The transaction involved a currency swap with a notional value of $210 million done by Salomon Brothers Inc., according to ISDA.

The notional value of outstanding interest-rate derivatives, including swaps, options, and cross-currency swaps, rose 21 percent to $347.09 trillion in the first half of 2007 versus the second half of 2006, according to ISDA's Mid-Year 2007 Market Survey of privately negotiated derivatives published on Sept. 26. In 1987, when the ISDA began compiling the data, the outstanding amount was $865.60 billion.

Libor Problem

Three-month dollar-denominated London interbank offered rate, a key indicator of bank willingness to lend, rose for a fifth day. The rate increased almost 2 basis points to 5 percent, the highest in more than three weeks.

Three month Libor is half a percentage point above the Federal Reserve's benchmark overnight lending rate of 4.5 percent, the most since Oct. 8. Short-term borrowing rates climbed to a 6 1/2 year high in mid-August as banks acknowledged their vulnerability to rising defaults on subprime mortgages and curbed loans to all but the safest borrowers.

Swap rates are higher than Treasury yields in part because the floating payments are based on interest rates that contain credit risk, such as the Libor. The rate on a U.S. two-year interest-rate swap is 4.16 percent, while the benchmark U.S. two-year note yield is 3.16 percent.

Risk Increases

``As long as the liquidity crisis goes on, with Libor rates rising, and people keep buying Treasuries, these spreads will remain wide,'' said Fidelio Tata, head of derivatives strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``Banks, and financial institutions in general, are short credit and really don't want to lend. It won't get much better until after year- end.''

The risk that banks and brokerages from Citigroup Inc. to Bear Stearns Cos. will default on their debt is accelerating as analysts increase their estimates of losses from subprime mortgages, credit-default swaps show.

Contracts on New York-based Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank by assets, rose 16 basis points to 95 basis points over the past two days, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group, setting a record today for the seventh time this month. A rise signals investors are less confident in a company's creditworthiness.

To contact the reporter on this story: Liz Capo McCormick in New York at