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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold & Gold Stock Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SwampDogg who wrote (9966)	11/17/2007 5:47:13 PM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29622

SwampDogg, "last paragraph" and the HUI / SPX For the most part I disagreed with myself with respect to that last paragraph...see "correction." As to a long term view of the HUI, yes I can see its orderliness, consolidation after advance..I also notice periods when the SPX and HUI have been linked, and when they have gone their separate ways, see the chart below...Probably, as you may be suggesting, the linkage or lack there of between the HUI and SPX has had as much to do with the HUI being overbought, oversold, its rhythm as anything else. stockcharts.com In early Nov the HUI got relatively overbought with respect to the degree it was extended above the longer term average shown on the chart. A couple things could happen here... a) Something fundamental occurs here that causes a strong inflow of funds into the small universe of mining stocks causing the HUI to extend this advance through the normally strong seasonal period... b) the yen carry trade, spec long liquidation, and general market trepidation further impacts on all of the "riskier" trades and miners consolidate lower... I am positioned to gain from a higher GOLD price (and Silver) and to buy on further weakness, which I think will occur first down into the 760-770 area for GOLD. A retest of the 43-44 break out point in the GDX should occur, as GOLD retreats, assuming it does... stockcharts.com We'll see ...higher GOLD prices into the end of the year?? That's also my overriding assumption.

To: SwampDogg who wrote (9966)	11/17/2007 8:00:37 PM
From: steve susko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29622

what happened to Gold in the 80's? Did it make record high of 880 and then came crashing down to 200's? What's the story behind ?

To: SwampDogg who wrote (9966)	11/18/2007 1:32:30 AM
From: SwampDogg	Respond to of 29622

Spike with nothing under it We tend to fret when when we see rest periods but these are the things that will save our a$$

To: SwampDogg who wrote (9966)	11/19/2007 10:50:09 AM
From: TrueScouse	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29622

SwampDog: Great post... <<Take a look at a 6 year chart of the $HUI. it may be the most perfect chart I have ever seen. A series of bull market moves following by perfect flat or triangle corrections. Didn't really matter what was going on in the general market. In each case it was a different set of circumstances. Gold needed to pull back and it will be all the stronger for it.>> And the HUI really needed to pull back to the major breakout point at 400, which is where we're at right now. Do you expect it to go and stay much below 400? I'm bullish but very nervous! Climbing the wall of worry? :^) Best regards, Howy