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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RealMuLan who wrote (71322)11/17/2007 3:06:52 PM
From: arun gera  Respond to of 116555
 
>Turnover rate is so high in those sweatshops itself means there are plenty of other sweatshops pay HIGHER PAY!>

So that is FoxConn's problem. They either pay more or get more efficient or tell Apple they don't want their business at low prices.

And the employees of Foxconn are already voting with their feet.

-Arun



To: RealMuLan who wrote (71322)11/17/2007 3:17:33 PM
From: arun gera  Respond to of 116555
 
RealMulan,

You can keep screaming about Apple and US companies or you can look at the real world behavior of buyers such as you or me.

When I go to a restaurant in USA, it is quite likely that there is a generally desperate worker sweating away in the kitchen who is not making much more than minimum wage, sometimes less.

Do you or I pay the waiters in a restaurant 100-200 percent of your bill or leave the standard 15-20 percent? No, we don't. In fact we may not even tip that much if the waiter goofed up on the order, thereby killing the tips shared by the guy in the kitchen.

-Arun

>FOXCONN that makes ALL AAPL product and even ALL the McDonald and Burger King fast food chain, ALL pays below the minimum salary! And due to the incompetency and/or corrupted local officials, they all get away with it! So your question is naive to put it politely, less politely, your question is stupid! So NO need to answer!>



To: RealMuLan who wrote (71322)11/17/2007 8:34:17 PM
From: RealMuLan  Respond to of 116555
 
Gavekal’s four scenarios for what lies ahead

ftalphaville.ft.com
...

* Scenario 1: The Fed sticks to its assertion that the risks for inflation and growth are now in balance, does not cut rates any further and the US economy grows past its credit crunch. If this happens, it would be massively bullish for the dollar, massively bearish for gold and potentially bearish for HK and Chinese equities (which are now anticipating more rate cuts). It would also be very bearish for US Treasuries and government bonds around the world. Additionally, we would most likely see a rotation within the stock markets away from commodity producers and deep cyclicals (which have been leading the market higher for years) towards the more traditional “growth” sectors, such as technology, health care, consumer goods, and maybe even Japanese equities.
* Scenario 2: The Fed sticks to its guns, does not cut rates, and the US economy really tanks under the weight of the credit crunch. In essence, the US would move into a Japanese-style “deflationary bust”. In this scenario, equities around the world, commodities, and the dollar would collapse, while government bonds would go through the roof.
* Scenario 3: The Fed ultimately cut rates, but this fails to rejuvenate the system and get growth going again. This would likely mean stagflation. As such, gold and other commodities would do well, while stocks and the US$ would struggle. Excluding bonds, this is increasingly what the market is pricing in today.
* Scenario 4: The Fed ultimately cuts rates, and succeeds in reining in the economy. This would be good news for equity markets, commodity markets, and the dollar, but of course, terrible news for bonds.

The market is still adamantly betting on Scenario 3, and thus one has to be concerned that the Fed’s hand could once again be forced by the market to cut. However, having learned from past experience, Bernanke should now work harder to rein in expectations, particularly as the data continues to point toward a resilient US economy.