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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (24031)	11/18/2007 11:12:47 PM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

Hi Frank - "You may or may not recall, but I posted about Skype's going Mobile via 3 about a month ago. It received zero traction back then, although I think it's significance, as evidenced by your post, among other mentions it's now receiving in the press, is now better understood..." Yes. I didn't respond, because initial reports indicated a somewhat lower QOS and functionality than "regular" mobile service. This, in turn, related to a suspicion that we may see the development of two-tiered service plans on mobile networks - designed to simultaneously accommodate and frustrate those on fixed-rate all-IP plans, thus encouraging them to "move up" to "premium" plans. However, subsequent reports on 3's Skype have been more generous, and one supposes there were some teething problems, to boot. "I'd like to address this point in more detail - i.e., parsing and examining different business models and situational conditions affecting viability, in a later posting." Among the many aspects of the discussion would be the future of VoIP in mobile. Dean Bubley has interesting analysis to offer, which is appended for your consideration: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com "... it seems to be my assertion that operators will lead the charge to mobile VoIP that has caused the most consternation. First off, if the carriers want to move to future networks (call them 3.9G or 4G) like LTE, UMB or WiMAX for reasons of bandwidth, data capacity or better spectrum use, there's no choice. They're all-IP, so you have to use VoIP, or maintain parallel GSM/UMTS technology for circuit voice. The GSMA has just endorsed LTE as its preferred future technology. Another operator group, the NGMN (next gen mobile network alliance) specifically lists VoIP capabilities in its requirements document and is also closely aligned with LTE and is also watching UMB & WiMAX. Secondly, from HSPA+ or EV-DO Rev A onwards, you can get more calls/Hz/cell with VoIP than circuit switched. LTE should be able to get 100-200% efficiency gains. Given that voice pricing is coming down, capping the spectrum being used for voice makes sense. I believe that operators will become increasingly spectrum-constrained, and any ways to extend the carrying capacity of their frequency allocations will have economic benefits in future. There's a lot more on the links between spectrum policy and Mobile VoIP in the report. Thirdly, you can do 'cool stuff' with VoIP that you can't with circuit-switched - eg embed it in a game with stereo location cues, encrypt it, run a full unified comms client for enterprise and so on. You can also do hi-def voice and so on. Fourthly, over time the operators will want to switch off their GSM and CDMA 1x networks and reuse the spectrum for UMTS or LTE or EVDO, and not have to run multiple networks in overlays Fifth, FMC carriers will want to move to a single voice switching & application infrastructure (maybe IMS or some other NGN). If they're going towards VoIP on the fixed side (and ultimately turning off the PSTN), they'll want a similar migration path on mobile. Look at BT's expected opex savings deriving from moving to 21CN." Jim